Gauging the labor force effects of retiring baby-boomers

As the oldest baby-boomers begin retiring in the next several years, the implications for the workforce could be enormous. The current tight labor market situation could be exacerbated, hindering prospects for economic growth and putting a greater burden on those remaining in the workforce, perhaps forcing them to work longer hours. Especially in occupations with functions less conducive to technology-driven productivity innovations-- many of the jobs in health services and educational services, for example-service may suffer and needs could go unmet unless older workers can be retained or other sources of workers can be found. Even in occupations where technological innovations have produced relatively large productivity gains-many of the more complex machining jobs in manufacturing, for example-the learning curves often are steep, meaning that new workers need to enter these occupations soon, so they can become proficient in the necessary skills by the time the baby-- boomers begin leaving the labor force. This article looks at the occupations and industries likely to be most affected when the oldest baby-- boomers begin retiring.