The hottest small markets

Some of the hottest markets for furniture and bedding are small metros, with core populations between 10,000 and 50,000. Their populations are growing and so is their potential for furniture and bedding sales. Here are the fastest-growing small metros.

Methodology

Furniture/Today market research worked with Easy Analytic Software Inc., to develop retail sales estimates and projections for U.S. furniture and bedding sales.

2006 sales estimates for each product category are based on data available through November 2006 and are subject to revision as additional data become available. Estimates are based on information from the Department of Commerce, the International Trade Commission, sales estimates from manufacturers and retailers, Furniture/Today's Consumer Buying Trends Surveys, Upholstery and Case Goods Style surveys and the Furniture Store Performance Report and discussions with industry executives and analysts.

Segment figures were aggregated by Furniture/Today and statisticians at EASI. EASI matched demographic data (such as, age and income) gathered by Furniture/Today's Consumer Buying Trends survey against other data sources, such as the Bureau of the Census, the Department of Justice, the National Center for Education Statistics and the Department of Labor, using a series of statistical models to develop estimates by metro markets.

EASI's highly accurate models are regression curves based upon a variety of factors designed to forecast changes that include growth and the interrelationship of variables.

Projections for 2011 are designed to forecast the changes that statistically adjust for household income, age by race and sex, group quarter population and births and deaths, along with other forecasting factors.

Spending forecasts assume a national rate of inflation that does not vary from one location to another.

Data are given for Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSA), defined as a geographic entity consisting of the county or counties containing one or more cores (urbanized areas or settlement clusters or both) that together have at least 10,000 population, plus adjacent counties having a high degree of social and economic integration with the core(s) measured through commuting patterns.

Within this broad definition, large metros, called Metropolitan Statistical Areas, have at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more population. Small metros, called Micropolitan Statistical Areas, have at least one urban cluster with a population of at least 10,000, but less than 50,000.

Both designations include adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core measured by commuting ties. The designations are mandated by the Office of Management and Budget and are used by government agencies for statistical reporting purposes.

Additional in-depth reports available

Furniture/Today and Easy Analytic Software have also prepared sales estimates and projections for individual product categories in a series of Product Potential Reports.

Each Product Potential Report gives estimated 2006 sales and projected 2011 sales figures for each specific product (for example, recliners or master bedroom) for 934 metropolitan areas. Each report also provides state-level data for the product.

Product Potential Reports are available for:

• Master bedroom

• Youth, other adult bedroom furniture

• Casual dining

• Dining room furniture

• Entertainment furniture

• Curios

• Occasional tables

• Desks and other home office furniture

• Stationary sofas

• Stationary chairs

• Reclining chairs

• Swivel, glider rockers

• Motion sofas

• Sofa sleepers and futons

• Mattress, boxspring

• Infant furniture

• Outdoor furniture

• Area rugs

• Lamps

• Wall décor

Also available are Market Potential reports, available for 934 metropolitan areas.

Each report gives the retail spending estimated in 2006 for each of the product categories listed above, along with projected spending in 2011. Armed with this information, retailers can calculate their own share of market in their trading area.

In addition to home furnishings spending estimates, Market Potential Reports also give demographic information on the metro area, including breakdowns by age, income, race and ethnicity, similar to that shown in the "Anatomy of a market" on page 13, showing how these variables are projected to change over time.

Both the Product Potential Reports and Market Potential Reports may be ordered online at www.furnituretoday.com (go to the Research Store) and will be available by mid-February.