The eco-economic revolution: Getting the market in Sync with nature.

If we want economic progress to continue, we must systematically restructure the global economy to make it environmentally sustainable. Here's a description of a future eco-economy, along with tips on future industries and job possibilities.

Today's global economy has been shaped by

market forces, not by the principles of ecology. Unfortunately, by failing to reflect the full costs of goods and services, the market provides misleading information to economic decision makers at all levels. This has created a distorted economy that is out of sync with the earth's ecosystem--an economy that is destroying its natural support systems.

An economy is sustainable only if it respects the principles of ecology. These principles are as real as those of aerodynamics. If an aircraft is to fly, it has to satisfy certain principles of thrust and lift. So, too, if an economy is to sustain progress, it must satisfy the basic principles of ecology. If it does not, it will decline and eventually collapse. There is no middle ground. An economy is either sustainable or it is not.

The market does not recognize basic ecological concepts of sustainable yield, nor does it respect the balances of nature. For example, it pays no attention to the growing imbalance between carbon emissions and nature's capacity to "fix" carbon, much less to the role of burning fossil fuels in creating the imbalance. For most economists, a rise in carbon dioxide levels is of little concern. For an ecologist, such a rise--driven by the use of fossil fuels--is a signal to shift to other energy sources in order to avoid rising temperatures, melting ice, and rising sea level.

An eco-economy would be one that satisfies our needs without jeopardizing the prospects of future generations to meet their needs. Creating such an economy is not a trivial undertaking; it is nothing less than an Environmental Revolution.

Ecology Over Economics

Ecologists understand the processes that support life on Earth. They understand the fundamental role of photosynthesis, the concept of sustainable yield, the role of nutrient cycles, the hydrological cycle, the sensitive role of climate, and the intricate relationship between the plant and animal kingdoms. They know that the earth's ecosystems supply services as well as goods and that the former are often more valuable than the latter.

A sustainable economy respects the sustainable yield of the ecosystems on which it depends: fisheries, forests, rangelands, and croplands. A particular fishery can sustain a catch of a certain size, but if the demands on the fishery exceed the sustainable yield by even 2% a year, the fish stocks will begin to shrink and will eventually disappear. As long as the harvest does not exceed the sustainable yield, it can be sustained in perpetuity. The same is true for forests and rangelands.

Nature also relies on balances. These include balances between soil erosion and new soil formation, between carbon emissions and carbon fixation, and between trees dying and trees regenerating.

Nature depends on cycles to maintain life. In nature, there are no linear flow-throughs, no situations where raw materials go in one end and garbage comes out the other. In nature, one organism's waste is another's sustenance, and nutrients are continuously cycled. This system works. Our challenge is to emulate it in the design of the economy.

Ecologists appreciate the role of photosynthesis, the process by which plants convert solar energy into the biochemical energy that supports life on the earth. Anything that reduces the photosynthetic product, such as desertification, the paving of productive land, or the acidification of lakes by acid rain, reduces the productivity of the earth in the most fundamental sense.

Despite this long-standing body of ecological knowledge, national governments have expanded economic activity with little regard for sustainable yields or the fragile balances in nature. Over the last half century, the sevenfold expansion of the global economy has pushed the demand on local ecosystems beyond the sustainable yield in country after country. The fivefold growth in the world fish catch since 1950 has pushed the demand of most oceanic fisheries past their ability to produce fish sustainably. The sixfold growth in the worldwide demand for paper is shrinking the world's forests. The doubling of the world's herds of cattle and flocks of sheep and goats since 1950 is damaging rangelands, converting them to desert.

An ecologist not only recognizes that the services provided by ecosystems may sometimes be worth more than the goods, but that the value of services needs to be calculated and incorporated into market signals if they are to be protected. Although calculating services is not a simple matter, any reasonable estimate is far better than assuming that the costs are zero, as is now the case. For example, a forest in the upper reaches of a watershed may provide services-such as flood control and the recycling of rainfall inland-that are several times more valuable than its timber yield. Unfortunately, market signals do not reflect this, because the loggers who are cutting the trees do not bear the costs of the reduction in services. National economic policies and corporate strategies are based largely on market signals. The clear-cutting of a forest may be profitable for a logging firm, but it is economically costly to society.

Another major failure of the market to provide reliable information comes when governments subsidize the depletion of resources or environmentally destructive activities. For example, over several decades the U.S. Forest Service used taxpayer money to build roads into national forests so that logging companies could clear-cut forests. This subsidy only artificially lowered the costs of lumber and paper, and it led to flooding, soil erosion, and the silting of streams and rivers. In the Pacific Northwest, it destroyed highly productive salmon fisheries. And all this destruction was underwritten by taxpayers.

In a world where the demands of the economy are pressing against the limits of natural systems, relying on distorted market signals to guide investment decisions is a recipe for disaster. Historically, for example, when the supply of fish was inadequate, the price would rise, encouraging investment in additional fishing trawlers. When there were more fish in the sea than we could ever hope to catch, the market worked well. Today, with the fish catch often exceeding the sustainable yield, investing in more trawlers in response to higher prices will simply accelerate the collapse of these fisheries.

A similar situation exists with other natural systems, such as aquifers, forests, and rangelands. Once the climbing demand for water surpasses the sustainable yield of aquifers, the water tables begin to fall and wells go dry. The market says drill deeper wells. Farmers engage in a competitive orgy of well drilling, chasing the water table downward. On the North China Plain, where 25% of the country's grain is produced, this process is under way. In Hebei Province, data for 1999 show 36,000 wells, mostly shallower ones, being abandoned during the year as 55,000 new, much deeper wells were drilled. In Shandong Province, 31,000 were abandoned and 68,000 new wells were drilled.

In an eco-economy, drilling additional wells would be banned once a water table showed signs of falling. Instead of spending money to dig deeper wells, investments would be channeled into measures to boost water efficiency and to stabilize population in order to bring water use into balance with the sustainable supply.

Evidence is accumulating that our global economy is slowly undermining itself on several fronts. If we want economic progress to continue, we have little choice but to systematically restructure the global economy in order to make it environmentally sustainable.

Imagining the Scope of Change

Converting our economy into an eco-economy is a monumental undertaking. There is no precedent for transforming an economy shaped largely by market forces into one shaped by the principles of ecology.

The scale of projected economic growth outlines the dimensions of the challenge. The growth in world output of goods and services from $6 trillion in 1950 to $43 trillion in 2000 has caused environmental devastation on a scale that we could not easily have imagined a half century ago. If the world economy continued to expand at 3% annually, the output of goods and services would increase fourfold over the next half century, reaching $172 trillion.

Building an eco-economy in the time available requires rapid systemic change. We will not succeed with a project here and a project there. We are winning occasional battles now, but we are losing the war because we do not have a strategy for the systemic economic change that will put the world on an environmentally sustainable development path.

Although the concept of environmentally sustainable development evolved a quarter century ago, not one country has a strategy to build an eco-economy-to restore carbon balances, to stabilize population and water tables, and to conserve its forests, soils, and diversity of plant and animal life. We can find individual countries that are succeeding with one or more elements of the restructuring, but not one that is progressing satisfactorily on all fronts.

Nevertheless, glimpses of the eco-economy are clearly visible in some countries. For example, 31 countries in Europe, plus Japan, have stabilized their population size, satisfying one of the most basic conditions of an eco-economy. Europe has stabilized its population within its food-producing capacity, leaving it with an exportable surplus of grain to help fill the deficits in developing countries. China--the world's most populous country-now has lower fertility than the United States and is moving toward population stability.

Denmark is the eco-economy leader. It has stabilized its population, banned the construction of coal-fired power plants, banned the use of non-refillable beverage containers, and is now getting 15% of its electricity from wind. In addition, it has restructured its urban transport network; now 32% of all trips in Copenhagen are on bicycle. Denmark is still not close to balancing carbon emissions and fixation, but it is moving in that direction.

Other countries have also achieved specific goals. A reforestation program in South Korea, begun more than a generation ago, has blanketed the country's hills and mountains with trees. Costa Rica has a plan to shift entirely to renewable energy by 2025. Iceland, working with a consortium of corporations led by Shell and DaimlerChrysler, plans to be the world's first hydrogen-powered economy.

So we can see pieces of the eco-economy emerging, but systemic change requires a fundamental shift in market signals-signals that respect the principles of ecological sustainability. Unless we are prepared to shift taxes from income to environmentally destructive activities, such as carbon emissions and the wasteful use of water, we will not succeed in building an eco-economy.

Restoring the balances of nature in energy production depends on shifting from a carbon-based economy to a hydrogen-based one. Even the most progressive oil companies, such as BP and Royal Dutch/Shell, that are talking extensively about building a solar/hydrogen energy economy are still investing overwhelmingly in oil, with funds going into climate-benign sources accounting for a minute share of their investment.

Reducing soil erosion to the level of new soil formation will require changes in farming practices. In some situations, it will mean shifting from intense tillage to minimum tillage or no tillage. Agroforestry will loom large in an eco-economy. Restoring forests that recycle rainfall inland and control flooding means reversing decades of tree cutting and land clearing with forest restoration, an activity that will require millions of people planting billions of trees.

Building an eco-economy will affect every facet of our lives. It will alter how we light our homes, what we eat, where we live, how we use our leisure time, and how many children we have. It will give us a world where we are a part of nature, instead of estranged from it.

Restructuring the Economy

We can now see what an eco-economy looks like. Instead of running on fossil fuels, it will be powered by renewable sources of energy, such as wind and sunlight, and by geothermal energy from within the earth. It will be hydrogen-based instead of carbon-based. Cars and buses will run on fuel-cell engines powered by electricity produced with an electrochemical process using hydrogen as the fuel instead of internal combustion engines. With fuel cells powered by hydrogen, there is no climate-disrupting carbon dioxide or noxious health-damaging pollutants; only water is emitted.

In the new economy, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will be stable. In contrast to today's energy economy, where the world's reserves of oil and coal are concentrate in a handful of countries, energy sources in the eco-economy will be widely dispersed--as widely distributed as sunlight and wind. The world's heavy dependence on the Middle East for much of its energy will likely decline as the new climate-benign energy sources and fuel-cell engines take over.

The energy economy will be essentially a solar/hydrogen economy with various energy sources deriving from the sun used either directly for heating and cooling or indirectly to produce electricity. Wind-generated electricity, which is likely to be the lowest-cost source of energy, will be used to electrolyze water, producing hydrogen. This provides a means of_both storing and transporting wind energy. Initially, existing natural gas pipelines will be used to distribute hydrogen. But over the longer term, both natural gas and oil pipeline networks can be adapted to carry hydrogen as the world shifts from a carbon-based to a hydrogen-based economy.

The transport systems of cities have already-begun to change. Instead of the noisy, congested, polluting, auto-centered transport systems of today, cities will have rail-centered transport systems, and they will be bicycle- and pedestrian-friendly, offering more mobility, more exercise, cleaner air, and less frustration.

Urban transport systems will have the same components as they do today: automobile, rail, bus, and bicycle. The difference will be in the mix. As more city planners recognize the inherent conflict between the automobile and the city, cleaner and more efficient transport systems will develop. Urban personal mobility will increase as automobile use and traffic congestion decline.

The materials sector of the eco-economy will look far different, too, as it shifts from the linear economic model, where materials go from the mine or forest to the landfill, to the reuse/recycle model, yielding no waste and nothing for the landfills.

One of the keys to reversing the deforestation of the earth is paper recycling; the potential here has been only partly realized. A second key is developing alternative energy sources that will reduce the amount of wood used as fuel. In addition, boosting the efficiency of wood burning can measurably lighten the load on forests.

Another promising option is the use of carefully designed, ecologically managed, and highly productive tree plantations. A small area devoted to plantations may be essential to protecting forests at the global level. Plantations can yield several times as much wood per hectare as can a natural forest.

In the economy of the future, the use of water will be in balance with supply. Water tables will be stable, not falling. The economic restructuring will be designed to raise water productivity in every facet of economic activity.

In this environmentally sustainable economy, harvests from oceanic fisheries, a major source of animal protein in the human diet, will be reduced to the sustainable yield. Additional demand will be satisfied by fish farming. This is, in effect, an aquatic version of the same shift that occurred during the transition from hunting and gathering to farming. The freshwater, herbivorous carp polyculture on which the Chinese rely heavily for their vast production of farmed fish offers an ecological model for the rest of the world.

A somewhat similar situation exists for rangelands. One of the keys to alleviating the excessive pressure on rangelands is to feed livestock the crop residues that are otherwise being burned for fuel or for disposal. This trend, already well under way in India and China, may hold the key to stabilizing the world's rangelands.

And finally, the new economy will have a stable population. Over the longer term, the only sustainable society is one in which couples have an average of two children.

Creating New Industries

Describing the eco-economy is obviously a somewhat speculative undertaking. In the end, however, it is not as open ended as it might seem, because the eco-economy's broad outlines are defined by the principles of ecology.

What is not so clear is how ecological principles will translate into economic design. For example, each country has a unique combination of renewable energy sources that will power its economy. Some countries may draw broadly on all their renewable energy sources, while others may concentrate heavily on one that is particularly abundant, such as wind or solar energy. A country with a wealth of geothermal energy may choose to structure its energy economy around this subterranean energy source.

Building a new economy involves phasing out old industries, restructuring existing ones, and creating new ones. World coal use is already being phased out, dropping 7% since peaking in 1996. It is being replaced by efficiency gains in some countries, by natural gas in others (such as the United Kingdom and China), and by wind power in others (such as Denmark).

The automobile industry faces a major restructuring as it changes power sources, shifting from the gasoline-powered internal combustion engine to the hydrogen-powered fuel-cell engine. This shift from the explosive energy that derives from igniting gasoline vapor to a chemical reaction that generates electricity will require both a retooling of engine plants and the retraining of automotive engineers and automobile mechanics.

The new economy will also bring major new industries, ones that either do not yet exist or that are just beginning. Wind electricity generation is one such industry. Now in its embryonic stage, it promises to become the foundation of the new energy economy. Millions of turbines soon will be converting wind into electricity, becoming part of the global landscape. In many countries, wind will supply both electricity and, through the electrolysis of water, hydrogen. Together, electricity and hydrogen can meet all the energy needs of a modern society.

In effect, there will be three new subsidiary industries associated with wind power: turbine manufacturing, installation, and maintenance. Manufacturing facilities will be found in scores of countries, industrial and developing. Installation, which is basically a construction industry, will be more local in nature. Maintenance, since it is a day-to-day activity, will be a source of ongoing local employment.

The robustness of the wind turbine industry was evident in 2000 and 2001 when high-tech stocks were in a free fall worldwide. While high-tech firms as a group were performing poorly, sales of wind turbines were climbing, pushing the earnings of turbine manufacturers to the top of the charts. Continuing growth of this sector is expected for the next few decades.

As wind power emerges as a low-cost source of electricity and a mainstream energy source, it will spawn another industry: hydrogen production. Once wind turbines are in wide use, there will be a large, unused capacity during the night when the demand for electricity drops. With this essentially free electricity, turbine owners an turn on the hydrogen generators and convert the wind power into hydrogen, ideal for fuel-cell engines. Hydrogen generators will start to replace oil refineries. The wind turbine will replace both the coal mine and the oil well. Both wind turbines and hydrogen generators will be widely dispersed as countries take advantage of local wind resources.

Changes in the world food economy will also be substantial. Some of these, such as the shift to fish farming, are already under way. The fastest-growing subsector of he world food economy during he 1990s was aquaculture, expanding at more than 11% a year. Fish farming is likely to continue to expand simply because of its efficiency in converting grain into animal protein.

Even allowing for slower future growth in aquaculture, fish farm output will likely overtake beef production before 2010. Perhaps more surprising, fish farming could eventually exceed the oceanic fish catch. Indeed, for China--the world's leading consumer of seafood-fish farming already supplies two-thirds of the seafood, while the oceanic catch accounts for the other third. With this development, new jobs will be created: aquatic ecologist, fish nutritionist, and marine veterinarian.

Another growth industry of the future is bicycle manufacturing and servicing. Because the bicycle is nonpolluting, frugal in its use of land, and provides the exercise much needed in sedentary societies, future reliance on it is expected to grow. As recently as 1965, the production of cars and bikes was essentially the same, but today more than twice as many bikes as cars are manufactured each year. Among industrial countries, the urban transport model being pioneered in the Netherlands and Denmark, where bikes are featured prominently, gives a sense of the bicycle's future role worldwide.

As bicycle use expands, interest in electrically assisted hikes is also growing. These bikes are similar to existing bicycles, except for a tiny battery-powered electric motor that can either power the bicycle entirely or assist elderly riders or those living in hilly terrain, and their soaring sales are expected to continue climbing in the years ahead.

Just as the last half century has been devoted to raising land productivity, the next half century will be focused on another growth industry: raising water productivity. Virtually all societies will be turning to the management of water at the watershed level in order to manage available supply most efficiently. Irrigation technologies will become more efficient. Urban wastewater recycling will become common. At present, water tends to flow into and out of cities, carrying waste with it. In the future, water will be used over and over, never discharged. Since water does not wear out, there is no limit to how long it can be used, as long as it is purified before reuse.

Another industry that will play a prominent role in the new economy, one that will reduce energy use, is teleconferencing. Increasingly for environmental reasons and to save time, individuals will be "attending" conferences electronically with both audio and visual connections. This industry involves developing the electronic global infrastructure, as well as the services, to make teleconferencing possible. One day there may be thousands of firms organizing electronic conferences.

New Jobs in the Eco-Economy

Restructuring the global economy will create not only new industries, but also new jobs--indeed, whole new professions and new specialties within professions. For example, as wind becomes an increasingly prominent energy source, thousands of wind meteorologists will be needed to analyze potential wind sites, monitor wind speeds, and select the best sites for wind farms. The better the data on wind resources, the more efficient the industry will become.

Wind engineers will be hired to design customized wind turbines. The appropriate turbine size and design can vary widely according to site. It will be the job of wind engineers to tailor designs to specific wind regimes in order to maximize electricity generation.

Environmental architecture is another fast-growing profession. Among the signposts of an environmentally sustainable economy are buildings that are in harmony with the environment. Environmental architects design buildings that are energy- and materials-efficient and that maximize natural heating, cooling, and lighting.

In a future of water scarcity, watershed hydrologists will be in demand. It will be their responsibility to understand the hydrological cycle, including the movement of underground water, and to know the depth of aquifers and determine their sustainable yield. They will be at the center of watershed management regimes.

As the world shifts from a throwaway economy, engineers will be needed to design products that can be recycled-from cars to computers. Once products are designed to be disassembled quickly and easily into component parts and materials, comprehensive recycling is relatively easy.

Technologies used in recycling are sometimes quite different from those used in producing from virgin raw materials. Within the U.S. steel industry, for example, where nearly 60% of all steel is produced from scrap, the technologies used differ depending on the feedstock. Steel manufactured in electric arc furnaces from scrap uses far less energy than traditional open-hearth furnaces using pig iron. Recycling engineers will be responsible for closing the materials loop, converting the linear flow-through economy into a comprehensive recycling economy.

In countries with a wealth of geothermal energy, it will be up to, geothermal geologists to locate the best sites either for supplying power plants or for tapping directly to heat buildings. Retraining petroleum geologists to master geothermal technologies is one way of satisfying the likely surge in demand for geothermal geologists.

If the world is to stabilize population sooner rather than later, it will need far more family-planning midwives in Third World communities. This growth sector will be concentrated largely in developing countries, where millions of women lack access to family planning. The same family-planning counselors who advise on reproductive health and contraceptive use can also play a central role in controlling the spread of HIV.

Another pressing need, particularly in developing countries, is for sanitation-system engineers who can design sewage systems not dependent on water, a trend that is already under way in some water-scarce countries. As it becomes clear that using water to wash waste away is a reckless use of a scarce resource, a new breed of sanitation engineers will be in wide demand. Washing waste away is even less acceptable today as marine ecosystems are overwhelmed by nutrient flows. Apart from the ecological disruption of a water-based disposal method, there are also much higher priorities in the use of water, such as drinking, bathing, and irrigation.

Yet another new specialty that is likely to expand rapidly in agriculture as productive farmland becomes scarce is that of the agronomist who specializes in multiple cropping and intercropping. This position requires expertise both in the selection of crops that can fit together well in a tight rotation in various locales and in agricultural practices that facilitate multiple cropping.

Investing in the Environmental Revolution

Restructuring the global economy so that economic progress can be sustained represents the greatest investment opportunity in history. The conceptual shift is comparable to that of the Copernican Revolution in the sixteenth century. In scale, the Environmental Revolution is comparable to the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions that preceded it.

The Agricultural Revolution involved restructuring the food economy, shifting from a nomadic lifestyle based on hunting and gathering to a settled lifestyle based on tilling the soil. Although agriculture started as a supplement to hunting and gathering, it eventually replaced these practices almost entirely. The Agricultural Revolution entailed clearing one-tenth of the earth's land surface of either grass or trees so it could be plowed. Unlike the hunter-gatherer culture that had little effect on the earth, this new farming culture literally transformed the surface of the earth.

The Industrial Revolution has been under way for two centuries, although in some countries it is still in its early stages. At its foundation was a shift in sources of energy from wood to fossil fuels, a shift that set the stage for a massive expansion in economic activity. Indeed, its distinguishing feature is the harnessing of vast amounts of fossil energy for economic purposes. While the Agricultural Revolution transformed the earth's surface, the Industrial Revolution is transforming the earth's atmosphere.

The additional productivity that the Industrial Revolution made possible unleashed enormous creative energies. It also gave birth to new lifestyles and to the most environmentally destructive era in human history, setting the world firmly on a course of eventual economic decline. The Environmental Revolution resembles the Industrial Revolution in that each is dependent on the shift to a new energy source. And like both earlier revolutions, the Environmental Revolution will affect the entire world.

There are differences in scale, timing, and origin among the three revolutions. Unlike the other two, the Environmental Revolution must be compressed into a matter of decades. And while the other revolutions were driven by new discoveries and advances in technology, this revolution is being driven more by our instinct for survival.

There has not been an investment situation like this before. The amount that the world spends now each year on oil, the leading source of energy, provides some insight into how much it could spend on energy in the eco-economy. In 2000, the world used nearly 28 billion barrels of oil, some 76 million barrels per day. At $27 a barrel, the total comes to $756 billion per year. How many wind turbines, solar rooftops, and geothermal wells will it take to produce this much energy?

One big difference between the investments in fossil fuels and those in wind power, solar cells, and geothermal energy is that the latter will supply energy in perpetuity. These "wells" will not run dry. If the money spent on oil in one year were invested in wind turbines, the electricity generated would be enough to meet one-fifth of the world's needs.

Investments in the infrastructure for the new energy economy, which would eventually have to be made as fossil fuels are depleted, will obviously be huge. These include the transmission lines that connect wind farms with electricity consumers and the pipelines that link hydrogen supply sources with end users. Much of the infrastructure for the existing energy economy--the transmission lines for electricity and the pipelines for natural gas--can be used in the new energy economy as well. The local pipeline distribution network in various cities for natural gas can easily be converted to hydrogen.

For developing countries, the new energy sources promise to reduce dependence on imported oil, freeing up capital for investment in domestic energy sources. Although few countries have their own oil fields, all have wind and solar energy. In terms of economic expansion and job generation, these new energy technologies are a godsend.

Investments in energy efficiency are also likely to grow rapidly simply because they are so profitable. In virtually all countries, industrial and developing, saved energy is the cheapest source of new energy. Replacing inefficient incandescent light bulbs with highly efficient compact fluorescent lamps offers a rate of return that stock markets are unlikely to match.

There are also abundant investment opportunities in the food economy. It is likely that the world demand for seafood, for example, will increase at least by half over the next 50 years, and perhaps much more. If so, fish-farming output--now 31 million tons a year--will roughly need to triple, as will investments in fish farming. Although aquaculture's growth is likely to slow from the 11% a year of the last decade, it is nonetheless likely to be robust, presenting a promising opportunity for future investment.

A similar situation exists for tree plantations. At present, tree plantations cover some 113 million hectares (280 million acres). An expansion of these by at least half, along with a continuing rise in productivity, is likely to be needed both to satisfy future demand and to eliminate one of the pressures that are shrinking forests. This, too, presents a huge opportunity for investment.

No sector of the global economy will be untouched by the Environmental Revolution. In this new economy, some companies will be winners and some will be losers. Those who anticipate the emerging eco-economy and plan for it will be the winners. Those who cling to the past risk becoming part of it.

About the Author

Lester R. Brown is board chairman of the Worldwatch Institute and president of the Earth Policy Institute, 1350 Connecticut Avenue, NW., Washington, D.C. 20036. Telephone 1-202-496-9290; email epi@earth-policy.org; Web site www.earth-policy.org.

This article draws from his book, Eco-Economy: Building an Economy for the Earth (W.W. Norton, 2001, paperback), which is available from the Futurist Bookstore for $15.95 ($14.50 for Society members), cat. no. B-2382.

Today's Economy vs. Tomorrow's Eco-Economy

Today's Economy                 Eco-Economy

Shaped by market forces.        Respects principles of ecology.

Unsustainable: Maximizes        Sustainable: Respects carrying
profit regardless of            capacity of systems; e.g.,
consequences to the ecosystem.  does not exceed sustainable
                                oceanic fish catch.

Disregards nature's services.   Recognizes ecosystems'
                                natural services.

Consumes dwindling supply       Relies on renewable resources
of fossil fuels.                such as wind, solar, and
                                geothermal energy.

Pollutes the environment        Minimal pollution,
and destablizes climate.        climate-neutral.

Carbon-based auto industry      Hydrogen-based fuel-cell
dependent on oil from           auto industry not reliant
politically unstable Middle     on specific country source.
East.

Contributes to noisy,           Will create rail-centered,
conjested, and polluted         bicycle-friendly cities that
cities.                         offer less stress and
                                pollution, more exercise.

Likely to decline in not-too-   Will create major new
distant future as natural       industries; e.g., the wind
supplies deteriorate.           industry will bring income
                                and jobs from manufacturing,
                                installation, and maintenance.

Source: Eco-Economy
Declining Industries in an Eco-Economy

Industry            Description

Coal mining         The 7% decline in world coal burning since it
                    peaked in 1996 will continue in the years
                    ahead.

Oil pumping         Projections based on shrinking oil reserves
                    indicate production will peak and start
                    declining in the next 5-20 years. Concern
                    about global warming could bring the
                    decline closer.

Nuclear power       Although public concern focuses on safety
                    issues, it is the high cost that is ensuring
                    the industry's decline.

Clear-cut logging   The rapid spread in eco-labeling of forest
                    products will likely force logging firms to
                    change to sustainable harvesting or be driven
                    out of business.

Manufacture of      As efforts to close the materials cycle
throwaway products  intensify, many throwaway products will
                    either be banned or taxed out of existence.

Automobile          As world population urbanizes, the conflict
manufacturing       between the automobile and the city will
                    intensify, reducing dependence of
                    automobiles.

Source: Eco-Economy
Examples of Expanding Industries in an Eco-Economy

Industry       Description

Fish farming   Although growth will slow from
               the double-digit rate of the
               last decade, rapid expansion
               is likely to continue.

Bicycle        Because bicycles are
manufacturing  affordable, nonpolluting,
               quiet, require little parking
               space, and provide much-needed
               exercise in exercise-deprived
               societies, they will become
               increasingly common.

Wind-farm      Wind-electricity generation,
construction   including off-shore wind
               farms, will grow rapidly over
               the next few decades, until
               wind is supplying most of
               the world's electricity.

Wind-turbine   Today the number of utility-
manufacturing  scale wind turbines is
               measured in the thousands,
               but soon it will be measured
               in the millions, creating an
               enormous manufacturing
               opportunity.

Hydrogen       As the transition from a
generation     carbon-based to a hydrogen-
               based energy economy
               progresses, hydrogen
               generation will become a key
               industry.

Fuel-cell      As fuel cells replace internal-
manufacturing  combustion engines in
               automobiles and begin
               generating power in buildings,
               a huge market will evolve.

Solar-cell     For many of the 2 billion
manufacturing  people living in rural Third
               World communities who lack
               electricity, solar cells will
               be the best bet for
               electrification.

Light-rail     As people tire of the traffic
construction   congestion and pollution
               associated with the automobile,
               cities in industrial and
               developing countries alike
               will be turning to light rail
               to provide mobility.

Tree planting  As efforts to reforest the
               earth gain momentum and as tree
               plantations expand, tree
               planting will emerge as a
               leading economic activity.

Source: Eco-Economy
Expanding Professions in an Eco-Economy

Profession                  Description

Wind meteorologists         Wind meteorologists will play a role in
                            the new energy economy comparable to
                            that of petroleum geologists in the
                            old one.

Family-planning midwives    If world population is to stabilize
                            soon, literally millions of
                            family-planning midwives will be needed.

Foresters                   Reforesting the earth will require
                            professional guidance on what tree
                            species to plant where and in what
                            combination.

Hydrologists                As water scarcity spreads, the demand
                            for hydrologists to advise on watershed
                            management, water sources, and water
                            efficiency will increase.

Recycling engineers         Designing consumer applications so they
                            can be easily disassembled and
                            completely recycled will become an
                            engineering specialty.

Aquacultural veterinarians  Until now, veterinarians have typically
                            specialized in either large animals or
                            small animals, but with fish farming
                            likely to overtake beef production by
                            2010, marine veterinarians will be in
                            demand.

Ecological economists       As it becomes clear that the basic
                            principles of ecology must be incorporated
                            into economic planning and policy making,
                            makingdemand for economists able to
                            think like ecologists will grow.

Geothermal geologists       With the likelihood that large areas of the
                            world will turn to geothermal energy both
                            for electricity and for heating, the demands
                            for geothermal geologists will climb.

Environmental architects    Architects are learning the principles
                            of ecology so they can incorporate them
                            into the buildings where we will live
                            and work.

Bicycle mechanics           As the world turns to the bicycle for
                            transportation and exercise, bicycle
                            mechanics will be needed to keep the
                            fleet running.

Wind-turbine engineers      With millions of wind turbines likely to
                            be installed in the decades ahead, there
                            will be strong worldwide demand for
                            wind-turbine engineers.

Source: Eco-Economy

RELATED ARTICLE: Steps Toward the Eco-Economy

Reforestation in Tanzania participants in a tree-planting program funded by a $1.2 million Dow Chemical Company grant measure the rate of growth of trees planted in December 2000 in Mpwapwa Tanzania Large-scale reforestation programs could create jobs for citizens who do the actual planting and for professional foresters who manage the process.

A wind turbine under construction in San Gorgonio Pass California. The manufacturer, Green Mountain energy plans to offer its customers 100% renewable energy 25% of which will come from wind tarbines. Though still in an embryonic stage wind energy could become a mainstream source of electricity and hydrogen in the future according to author Lester R. Brown.

Lighting the eco-economy Larry Wilton (left) CEO of Philips Lighting Company watches California's cabinet secretary for the Technology Trade and Commerce Agency Lon Hatamiya install an energy-efficient light buib in Berkeley California. Lower energy expenditures in heating cooling and lighting buildings can help reduce air pollution and climate disruption according to the author.

A showroom for alternative transportation. Metreon's Speed & Sport Shop offers consumers in San Francisco, California a choice of electric bicycles, folding bicycles and scooters Bicycles provide a cheap, nonpolluting alternative to commuting by car that is catching on in some countries in Copenhagen. Denmark 32% of all trips are on bicycles.

Fish biologist Gerald Ludwig examines a market-size sunshine bass at the National Aquaculture Research Center in Stuttgart Arkansa. Fish farm output is likely to over take beef production before 2010 according to Brown.