IRAQ - Back To Iraqi Front.

Kurdistan President Barzani on Oct. 19 raised the stakes in the standoff by warning Turkey the KRG would defend itself against any cross-border strike on PKK bases. He stated: "We frankly say to all parties: if they attack the [Kurdistan] region under whatever pretext, we will be completely

An APS source on Oct. 27 said Barzani wanted Ankara to recognise Iraqi Kurdistan and give it guaranteed access to the sea in return for KRG co-operation to end PKK's presence in northern Iraq and help in its disarmament, while the PKK wants to escalate in order to negotiate a settlement with Ankara. The source says Barzani had Talabani's full agreement on his terms and that the offer was sent to Ankara by a special KRG emissary before PKK's Oct. 21 attack.

Whereas Talabani and his PUK have a Marxist background, Barzani and his Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) are tribal and the Qandil mountains where the PKK has bases are within KDP's territory. Barzani has traditionally taken a more militant Kurdish nationalist line than Talabani and other Kurdish leaders. And while Iraqi Kurdish officials say they have no love for the PKK, a hardline group which once dubbed them traitors, they stress they would not fight the rebels without prior recognition of the KRG by Ankara. It is not yet clear, however, whether Barzani's terms included the fate of Kirkuk. Ankara is strongly opposed to KRG's annexation of Kirkuk to its territory.

Article 140 of Iraq's constitution calls for a referendum to decide on the future of Kirkuk. This article has aroused a storm of controversy in Iraq as well. Long-standing Kurdish demands for Kirkuk to be incorporated in the KRG area are due to be put to a referendum by end-2007. The Kurds want it, claiming Kirkuk is Kurdish and that its Kurdish population was driven out by Saddam's Sunni/Ba'thist dictatorship.

Iraq's Sunni and Shi'ite Arabs and Turkomans, however, strongly oppose giving Kirkuk to the Kurds. By voicing his position on the subject - after having orchestrated a demographic restructuring of Kirkuk - PM Maliki placed himself at odds with the Turks and the states surrounding Iraq, all of which abhor the idea of Kurdish separatism.

The more the Kurds get carrots in Iraq, the more this will inspire fellow Kurds in Turkey, Iran and Syria to demand similar treatment. That explains why, speaking from Ankara, Syria's President Assad supported Erdogan's measures as "self-defence". Assad said: "We support the decision the Turkish government has put...against...and terrorist activities. We see this as Turkey's legitimate right". But, in view of objections within Syria's 'Alawite/Ba'thist regime, Assad later backtracked on this issue.