How Bush's tax cut will really work
LOOK FOR ACTION ON THE SUPPLY SIDE; MARKET GROWTH IS KEY TO SPENDING.
IMAGE PHOTOGRAPH 1I HAVE BEEN IN THE ECONOMIC FOREcasting
First, let me indulge in a little history. Many economists were surprised that the 2001 Bush tax cut did not provide as much stimulus to the economy as had tax cuts during the Kennedy-Johnson and Reagan years. In fact, most people did spend their tax cut. But they bought goods produced in other countries. In other words, consumption did rise-check the figures-but imports rose almost as much. Hence, there was virtually no gain in U.S. production. Hence, there was no pickup in capital spending. The so-called multiplier didn't multiply.
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