Too many graduates, too few jobs.

College degree may not guarantee a spot on the payroll

Most people attending college do so with the hope of providing a better life for themselves someday. They work toward getting a good job after graduation. And in the past, a degree and hard work often were all that was necessary to

According to the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), college graduates entering the work force in the 1990s and early 2000s are expected to face more competition for jobs than their 1980s counterparts.

Economist Kristina J. Shelley, writing in DOL's Occupational Outlook Quarterly, says, "Employment projections for the 1990-2005 period indicate that the average annual openings in jobs requiring a degree will number fewer than during the 1984-1990 period." Data from the National Center for Educational Statistics show that the number of bachelor's degrees awarded annually will rise between 1990 and 2005 as well.

Many factors affect the imbalance between the number of graduates and the number of jobs requiring degrees, including the overall rate of economic growth, the growth in the number of jobs requiring a degree, the upgrading of employees due to changes in technology, and the replacing of those graduates who leave the work force.

Overall economic growth between 1990 and 2005 will be slower than in past decades, according to Shelley. This is largely due to the aging of the baby-boom generation. "In the 1990s and early part of the twenty-first century, employment growth will be slow because the number of young people entering the labor force will change little and the labor force participation of women will grow less rapidly," she says.

Experience is a definite factor in the workplace, according to Shelley. While a college education is a valuable asset, on-the-job experience rates higher in such areas as the retail, service, repair, and construction industries.

On the other hand, the need to replace workers leaving the work force for such reasons as retirement, death, disability, relocation, or family needs may benefit college graduates. While the annual rate of replacement for 1984-1990 was 1.06%, it should reach 1.34% between 1990 and 2005.

With fewer openings in the work force, many students will have to choose their fields of study more carefully. Some may opt to relocate or accept jobs that may be below their educational levels and goals. As more jobs traditionally available to workers without college degrees become filled by graduates, the non-degreed workers will have to plan their careers more carefully, Shelley points out.

"Workers who prepare themselves for jobs requiring specific skills--such as bookkeeper, mechanic, or technician--will fare better than those who lack specialized training," she concludes.