A decade's bills are coming due

The latest federal budget estimates are both encouraging and impressive. In June, the Office of Management and Budget released its latest 10year forecast, predicting the overall federal budget surplus between 2001 and 2010 to be $4.2 trillion, up from the $2.9 trillion OMB estimated in February. A

The vibrant economy has completely changed the budget outlook that existed two years ago. While budget policy and the budget process itself were built on the presumption of troublesome deficits far into the future, we now face the much happier situation of surpluses. But unless a new political dynamic surfaces shortly the Defense Department will not claim much of this newfound federal wealth.

During the past decade, Defense paid a major portion of the bill that helped bring the budget into balance and, ultimately surplus. While force structure was cut by more than one-third, the defense budget itself was slashed nearly 40 percent. Weapons procurement was cut more than 70 percent, delaying modernization programs while the nation worked to get its fiscal house in order. Despite these reductions and a historic increase in the rate of deployments, the military succeeded in keeping readiness relatively high and the seeds of modernization planted in fertile soil. At some point, however, it became clear that there would be a price for maintaining a volunteer force of 1.4 million service members in an increasingly tight labor market and for operating aging equipment.