IRAQ - Focusing On The Non-Oil Sector - Part 6C - Before Reconstruction:.

Reconstruction efforts in Iraq are largely regressing, in part due to a deteriorating security situation. The priority for the US-led multinational force (MNF) now is to neutralise a wide variety of insurgents in the Sunni Triangle in the centre, north and west of the country and a Shiite rebellion

In the most comprehensive analysis to date of Iraq's overall well-being, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an independent Washington research group, on Sept. 8 warned US and Iraqi officials that negative trends had the potential to undermine what it called the optimism and patience of Iraqis that had helped sustain the country. The findings of its long report - "Progress or Peril? Measuring Iraq's Reconstruction Progress" - undermined Bush administration claims that life in Iraq was improving.

"There has been background movement or stagnation, or at best tiny forward movement in recent months", said Sheba Crocker, co-director of the project, describing surveys of inter-related sectors in Iraqi security, governance and participation, economic opportunity, services, healthcare and education. The CSIS said in none of these sectors had Iraq reached "realistic goals", described as the "tipping point" to sustainable progress. Frederick Barton, co-director, questioned whether legislative elections could be held as scheduled by Jan. 31, 2005.

The report found "normalcy" in life in only a few parts of Iraq. Elsewhere, normalcy was hampered by poor security, rampant crime and corruption, a lack of capacity of national institutions, worrying trends for women and human rights in general and a surprising degree of negative sentiment among Kurds in northern Iraq. Healthcare and education had made significant advances since Saddam Hussein's overthrow, but saw a downward trend recently. Infectious diseases had increased amid sewage problems, and economic necessity had forced children to drop out of school.