Iraq's Mobile Subscribers Could Reach 5M by 2006

As Iraq struggles to reestablish communications within the country and with the outside world, its mobile phone industry is set to trigger heated competition among telecom infrastructure suppliers and service providers as well as a clash between the competing cellular technologies GSM and CDMA, according

CDMA, a relatively new entrant in the mobile market, commands roughly 12 percent of the global market, largely in North America and parts of Asia, while GSM dominates nearly 70 percent, covering a larger area.

?Since the entire region is familiar with GSM it should be the choice,? said Bashar Dahabra, general manager of Acotel Middle East. ?Introducing CDMA would lead to problems and inconsistency.?

GSM is widely used by wireless users across Europe and Asia. Its advantages include a global subscriber base of 450 million; international roaming, which permits using one phone across Western Europe; a stable network with robust features, including the availability of subscriber identity modules and easy upgrade to 3G.

CDMA offers increased communications security, simultaneous conversations, smaller phones, little cell-to-cell coordination needed by operators and extended reach. However, CDMA does not work in France, Germany and the U.K., and its network is still under construction.

With the telecom network in shambles, the only mobile communications system available at this time in Iraq is London-based Inmarsat?s mini-M, a voice mobile system, operating via satellites, with users equipped with Thuraya handsets. There are some 20,000 Thuraya subscribers in Iraq at present, although the phones are also used by relief agencies such as the Red Cross. In fact some 80,000 more Thuraya sets are due to be supplied shortly.

Industry analysts say the authorities should appoint more than one mobile service provider to speed up completion of projects and to create competition. The Thuraya handsets, for example, are expensive for Iraqis, costing upward of $600 each. Thuraya, nevertheless, has been vying for a larger share of the Iraqi market by dropping its usage charges from $10 per minute to $6 per minute.

Over the next three years, Iraq?s mobile phone subscribers could easily increase to 5 million, provided a judicious selection of telecom infrastructure and cellular technology is made, according to the report.

?The right cellular system will enable Iraq to accelerate the pace of re-construction, hasten humanitarian relief work and boost business by linking the country to the rest of the world, essential for Iraq's early recovery and for attracting foreign investment,? Dahabra said. ?Iraq is heading for a boom in the IT and communication sector. With the right technology and right companies, the full benefits of reconstruction will percolate down to the Iraqi people.?

John Mason is a freelance journalist and contributor to Electronic News. Mason follows technical and market developments in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. He can be contacted at jfmason@infonegocio.com .