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NO RISK, NO REWARD. IT'S A PLAIN-spoken maxim that Richard Marshall Jr. lives by. The U.S. Navy commander, who currently lives in Alexandria, Virginia, and works at the Pentagon, invests in mutual funds and seeks to supercharge his holdings.
His personal
Marshall has followed Outlaw's suggestion that he reduce his exposure to domestic stock funds, real estate funds, and bond funds. "My portfolio now includes 55% in international funds and 25% in global funds," Marshall says. (Global funds invest in U.S. and foreign companies while international funds focus solely on offshore stocks.)
He's decided not to sit on the sideline because of market turbulence. But a number of investors have become increasingly cautious due to economic uncertainty. With consumer prices up 4.1% in 2007, inflation was pushed up by the largest amount in 17 years. Now the prospect of recession looms as inflation threatens to rise even further. Oil prices spike as the value of the dollar slides. Housing prices continue to plummet as mortgage defaults increase. Investors witnessed a sharp downturn in the stock market in the first weeks of this year--the S&P 500 declined 6.1% in January alone.
There's every indication that the market in the coming months will prove to be even more tumultuous. For instance, the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index, which measures market swings, roughly doubled from early 2007 to early 2008. For instance, in a mere three months, from October 2007 to January 2008, the Dow dropped by 14.5%. If you were sitting on a $200,000 nest egg last October, one that moved in sync with the Dow, you'd suddenly be facing the future with only $171,000 to tap.
These factors led Marshall, 39, to tilt his portfolio sharply to non-U.S, holdings. In fact, his largest position is now in Oppenheimer Developing Markets Fund (ODMAX), which is classified as an emerging markets fund. Such vehicles are considered among the riskiest of all stock funds because they invest in countries that may have light stock market regulation, political turmoil, hyperinflation, and currency devaluations.
For taking such chances, investors may be well rewarded. That turned out to be the case for Marshall, who saw his fired, which invests heavily in Brazilian and Indian equities, return nearly 34% in 2007. "My other international and global stocks also did well," he says. To achieve his lofty returns for his portfolio--which is worth $200,000--the top gun doesn't own a single bond fund and only 5% of his holdings is in cash.
Marshall was willing to pursue aggressive strategies to realize sizable returns. But that doesn't mean you should approach investing the same way. To evaluate where you stand, follow market activity closely, determine your risk tolerance level, and seek solid financial advice. BLACK ENTERPRISE has also developed The Moneywise 100--our semiannual guide to 100 mutual funds that merit your attention. Working with Chicago-based mutual fund research firm Morningstar, we've identified funds based on criteria including three-and five-year returns in the top quartile of their respective categories and, for the first time, indicated risk ratings for each.
MORE VOLATILITY
Even though recent events have reminded many that investing can be a risky business, the outlook is not entirely gloomy. The stock market has had many corrections and crashes over the years, yet investors who tolerated the downs have enjoyed the ups: Long term, stocks have delivered much higher returns than bonds or bank accounts. For a quarter of a century--from late 1982 to 2007--economic historians maintain that the stock market has produced a total return of more than 2,000%.
In fact, last year turned out to be a good time to take certain types of risks. International stock funds returned nearly 16%, on average, while domestic stock funds gained about 6%. Among foreign stock funds, the leaders were specialized categories such as Latin America (up 46%), Pacific/Asia, excluding Japan (48%), and diversified emerging markets (37%). Japanese stock funds, on the other hand, lost more than 9%. The narrower a fund's focus, the more risk investors assume.
Sector funds also demonstrated this risk-reward tradeoff. Top performers included those with holdings in natural resources (37%), precious metals (23%), and utilities (20%), while investors were punished if they held funds specializing in financial firms (-12%) or real estate (-15%).
TEST YOUR TOLERANCE
These days many investors are seeking the safety of money market funds. "There are three main reasons for investing in a money market fund," says Dail St. Claire, president of New York-based Williams Capital Management Trust. "They are preservation of capital, liquidity, and generating income."
In today's environment, the first two are far more important, according to St. Claire. That is, protecting against loss and having access to your money should be prime concerns, rather than seeking an extra quarter-point of yield.
"Do your homework," St. Claire says. "Before investing in a money market fund, read the prospectus as well as statement of additional information, or SAI, and the one-page fact sheet. See if the fund is identified as a '2a7' fund. Those funds are subject to federal regulations on portfolio maturity, credit quality, diversification, and liquidity."
Overall, putting together a mutual fund portfolio that matches your risk threshold can prove challenging. First, determine how much market turbulence you can stomach. You can take a risk tolerance quiz online at BlackEnterprise.com. "If you work with a financial adviser, you should go through this kind of exercise before making any investments," says Outlaw.
FIND THE RIGHT MIX OF FUNDS
Experts say most investors have moderate or slightly lower-than-moderate risk tolerance levels. Once you have some idea of whether you are Bold Bart or Nervous Nellie, you can begin the process of constructing your mutual fired portfolio. David Kathman, a fund analyst at Morningstar, says you should first determine the risk of various fund categories.
"Risk is often equated with volatility," says Kathman, "and the most common way to measure the volatility of an investment is standard deviation." In essence, standard deviation reflects historic swings in investment returns. The wider the swings, the greater the risk investors will face. So, historically, a large blend fund--a mix of large-company growth and value stocks--would provide far less risk than specialty funds, such as those that invest in precious metals. During the past five years, however, precious metals funds returned nearly 22% a year on average, twice as much as large blend funds. Therefore, risk-takers were rewarded.
A more audacious investor, then, might start off with a core holding of large-company domestic and international stock funds. Smaller-company funds, specialized sector funds, and emerging markets funds could be added, in search of higher returns. Fixed-income investments would be virtually nonexistent in his or her portfolio.
What about investors with very little taste for risk? "I'd recommend a large allocation to bond funds," says Outlaw. All fixed-income investments--including those that hold low-rated junk bonds--tend to provide more safety than any stock fund category.
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Once you've decided on your mix of fund categories, the next step is to pick funds within each class. Always focus on past performance, expense ratios, asset turnover ratios, and the tenure of fund managers, among other key elements. Another risk gauge: five- or 10-year returns.
Morningstar's Kathman also suggests taking a critical view of portfolio diversification. For instance, a fund with 30 holdings might prove to be more volatile than a vehicle with 50 stocks.
One way to size up the best funds is to review our Moneywise 100 listing; we have taken into account all of the aforementioned factors. As a rule, however, evaluate risk for yourself before investing a single dollar to determine if a fund will provide the ups and downs of a rollercoaster ride or keep you on solid ground.
The Moneywise 100
Ticker 5-year 5-Year Expense
Fund Name Symbol Return Risk Rating Ratio
Large Growth
Columbia Marsico NMYAX 21.7% Above Avg 1.01%
21st Century Z
Amana Trust Growth AMAGX 19.7 Average 1.35
American Funds New ANFFX 15.9 Above Avg 0.76
Economy F
American Funds GFAFX 15.0 Below Avg 0.61
Growth Fund of
Amer F
Transamerica Premier TEQUX 14.9 Average 1.15
Equity Inv
Jennison Blend Z PEQZX 14.7 Average 0.64
AIM Summit P SMMIX 14.7 Average 0.92
Excelsior Large Cap UMLGX 14.5 Above Avg 1.20
Growth
Waddell & Reed Adv WAVYX 13.9 Above Avg 0.86
Vanguard Y
Sit Large Cap Growth SNIGX 13.4 Low 1.00
Large Value
RiverSource IDQYX 19.2 High 0.89
Diversified Equity
Inc R4
Excelsior Value & UMBIX 18.7 High 1.05
Restructuring
1st Source Monogram FMIEX 17.2 Above Avg 1.15
Income Equity
American Beacon Lg AAGAX 16.9 Average 0.32
Cap Value AMR
Monteagle Value MVRGX 16.4 High 1.22
RiverSource Equity AEVYX 16.3 Above Avg 0.93
Value R4
DFA Tax-Managed U.S. DFMVX 16.2 High 0.24
Marketwide Value
II
Seligman Large Cap SLVIX 16.0 Above Avg 0.97
Value 1
Vanguard Value Index VIVAX 14.5 Average 0.21
MFS Value I MEIIX 14.5 Low 0.76
Large Blend
Janus Contrarian JSVAX 26.7 High 0.94
Fairholme FAIRX 18.8 Above Avg 1.00
Neuberger Berman NPRTX 17.4 High 0.80
Partners Inv
American Funds- AFIFX 17.3 Above Avg 0.58
Fundamental Invs F
FMI Large Cap FMIHX 15.5 Low 1.00
Mid-Cap Growth
BlackRock U.S. BMCSX 21.4 Average 1.40
Opportunities Svc
Roosevelt Anti- BULLX 18.3 Low 1.28
Terror Multi-Cap
Dreyfus Premier S&P DSORX 18.2 Average 1.15
Stars Opp I
Neuberger Berman Mid NMANX 16.9 Above Avg 1.02
Cap Growth Inv
Sit Mid Cap Growth NBNGX 16.8 Average 1.15
Mid-Cap Value
RiverSource Mid Cap RMCVX 22.2 Above Avg 1.10
Value R4
Columbia Mid Cap NAMAX 18.1 Average 0.87
Value Z
Allegiant Mid Cap ARVIX 17.6 Average 0.93
Value I
Delafield DEFIX 17.5 Above Avg 1.32
Heartland Select HRSVX 16.6 Above Avg 1.25
Value
Small-Cap Growth
Winslow Green Growth WGGFX 24.5 High 1.45
Excelsior Small Cap UMLCX 18.6 Average 1.22
BlackRock Small Cap PCGEX 18.3 Average 1.02
Grth Equity Svc
TCW Small Cap TGSCX 16.7 Above Avg 1.29
Growth I
Small-Cap Value
Columbia Small Cap NSVAX 17.3 Average 1.02
Value II Z
Columbia Small Cap CSCZX 16.0 Average 1.04
Value I Z
Franklin Small Cap FVFRX 15.9 Average 1.40
Value R
JHT Small Company N/A 15.4 Below Avg 1.08
Value Trust Ser I
Diversified Emerging Markets
DFA Emerging Markets DFEVX 46.0 Above Avg 0.60
Value I
Fidelity Emerging FEMKX 35.1 Above Avg 1.01
Markets
T. Rowe Price PRMSX 34.8 Above Avg 1.25
Emerging Markets
Stock
Minimum
Initial
Fund Name Investment Website
Large Growth
Columbia Marsico $0 www.columbiafunds.com
21st Century Z
Amana Trust Growth 250 www.amanafunds.com
American Funds New 250 www.americanfunds.com
Economy F
American Funds 250 www.americanfunds.com
Growth Fund of
Amer F
Transamerica Premier 1,000 www.transamerica.com
Equity Inv
Jennison Blend Z 0 www.jennisondryden.com
AIM Summit P 0 www.aiminvestments.com
Excelsior Large Cap 2,500 www.excelsiorfunds.com
Growth
Waddell & Reed Adv 0 www.waddell.com
Vanguard Y
Sit Large Cap Growth 5,000 www.sitfunds.com
Large Value
RiverSource 2,000 www.riversource.com
Diversified Equity
Inc R4
Excelsior Value & 2,500 www.excelsiorfunds.com
Restructuring
1st Source Monogram 1,000 www.Istsource.com
Income Equity
American Beacon Lg 0 www.americanbeaconfunds.com
Cap Value AMR
Monteagle Value 2,000 www.memorialfunds.com
RiverSource Equity 0 www.riversource.com
Value R4
DFA Tax-Managed U.S. 0 www.dfafunds.com
Marketwide Value
II
Seligman Large Cap 0 www.seligman.com
Value 1
Vanguard Value Index 3,000 www.vanguard.com
MFS Value I 0 www.mfs.com
Large Blend
Janus Contrarian 2,500 wwwjanus.com
Fairholme 2,500 www.fairholmefunds.com
Neuberger Berman 1,000 www.nb.com
Partners Inv
American Funds- 250 www.americanfunds.com
Fundamental Invs F
FMI Large Cap 1,000 www.fiduciarymgt.com
Mid-Cap Growth
BlackRock U.S. 5,000 www.blackrock.com
Opportunities Svc
Roosevelt Anti- 1,000 www.anti-terrorfund.com
Terror Multi-Cap
Dreyfus Premier S&P 1,000 www.dreyfus.com
Stars Opp I
Neuberger Berman Mid 1,000 www.nb.com
Cap Growth Inv
Sit Mid Cap Growth 5,000 www.sitfunds.com
Mid-Cap Value
RiverSource Mid Cap 2,000 www.riversource.com
Value R4
Columbia Mid Cap 0 www.columbiafunds.com
Value Z
Allegiant Mid Cap 0 www.allegiantfunds.com
Value I
Delafield 5,000 www.delafieldfund.com
Heartland Select 1,000 www.heartlandfunds.com
Value
Small-Cap Growth
Winslow Green Growth 5,000 www.winslowgreen.com
Excelsior Small Cap 2,500 www.excelsiorfunds.com
BlackRock Small Cap 5,000 www.blackrock.com
Grth Equity Svc
TCW Small Cap 2,000 www.tcw.com
Growth I
Small-Cap Value
Columbia Small Cap 0 www.columbiafunds.com
Value II Z
Columbia Small Cap 2,500 www.columbiafunds.com
Value I Z
Franklin Small Cap 1,000 www.franklintempleton.com
Value R
JHT Small Company 0 www.jhannuities.com
Value Trust Ser I
Diversified Emerging Ma
DFA Emerging Markets 0 www.dfafunds.com
Value I
Fidelity Emerging 2,500 www.fidelity.com
Markets
T. Rowe Price 2,500 www.troweprice.com
Emerging Markets
Stock
SOURCE: MORNINGSTAR INC. MORNINGSTAR MAKES EVERY EFFORT TO ENSURE THE
ACCURACY AND COMPLETENESS OF THIS DATA, BUT CANNOT GUARANTEE IT.
TOP FUNDS IN EACH CATEGORY RANKED BY FIVE-YEAR RETURNS WITH A MINIMUM
INVESTMENT OF $5,000 OR LESS RETURNS THROUGH 1/30/08
The Moneywise 100
Ticker 5-year 5-Year Expense
Fund Name Symbol Return Risk Rating Ratio
Foreign Large Value
Dodge & Cox DODFX 25.7 High 0.66
International
Stock
DFA Intl Value I DFIVX 25.6 Above Avg 0.44
Harbor International HIINX 25.0 High 1.19
Inv
DFA Tax-Managed Intl DTMIX 25.0 Above Avg 0.54
Value
Thomas White TWWDX 24.6 High 1.42
International
Vanguard VTRIX 22.5 Above Avg 0.45
International
Value
Foreign Large Blend
Fidelity Canada FICDX 27.8 High 0.97
Elfun International EGLBX 24.0 Above Avg 0.18
Equity
Sextant SSIFX 22.9 Above Avg 1.02
International
New Century NCFPX 22.8 High 1.35
International
Fidelity FIGRX 22.7 Above Avg 1.00
International
Discovery
American Funds AEGFX 21.6 Average 0.78
EuroPacific Gr F
Manning & Napier EXWAX 21.4 Average 1.16
World
Opportunities A
American Funds CEUEX 21.2 Average 1.11
EuroPacific Gr
529E
GE International GEIDX 21.1 Above Avg 1.20
Equity Y
ING Julius Baer UBSX 20.9 Above Avg 1.13
Foreign S
UMB Scout UMBWX 20.6 Low 0.97
International
Matthews Asian MATFX 23.8 Average 1.39
Technology
Turner New TBTBX 22.6 High 1.61
Enterprise
Waddell & Reed Adv USTFX 17.8 Low 1.01
Science & Tech Y
BlackRock Global Sci BSTSX 16.0 Below Avg 1.73
& Tech Opp Svc
Fidelity Select FSHCX 20.7 Above Avg 0.94
Medical Delivery
T. Rowe Price Health PRHSX 17.4 Average 0.87
Sciences
VALIC I Health VCHSX 16.7 Above Avg 1.17
Sciences
JHT Health Sciences JEHSX 16.4 Average 1.16
Trust Ser I
Hartford Global HIAHX 13.7 Average 0.87
Health HLS IA
U.S. Global UNWPX 37.0 Above Avg 0.99
Investors
WrldPrecMineral
USAA Precious Metals USAGX 32.8 Average 1.21
and Minerals
Alpine International EGLBX 25.8 Low 1.14
Real Estate
ING Van Kampen Real IVRSX 21.1 Average 0.90
Estate S
Intermediate Bond
Metropolitan West MWTRX 7.3 Average 0.65
Total Return
Bond M
Managers Bond MGFIX 6.6 High 0.99
Westcore Plus Bond WTIBX 6.5 Below Avg 0.55
Baird Core Plus Bond BCOSX 6.0 Average 0.55
Inv
Principal Inv Income PIOIX 5.7 Above Avg 0.51
Inst
Vanguard Interm-Term VBIIX 5.4 High 0.18
Bond Index
TCW Core Fixed- TGCFX 5.3 Average 0.50
income I
TCW Total Return TGLMX 5.1 Low 0.44
Bond I
Vanguard Interm- VFICX 5.1 Above Avg 0.21
Term Investment-
Grade
T. Rowe Price New PRCIX 4.9 Average 0.66
Income
High Yield Bond
Fidelity Advisor FAHCA 13.8 High 1.81
High income
Advantage I
Principal Inv High PHYTX 12.7 Above Avg 0.53
Yield II Inst
Fidelity Capital & FAGIX 12.4 High 0.75
Income
Julius Baer Global BJBHX 10.7 Above Avg 1.08
High Income A
Putnam High Yield PHAYX 10.6 Average 0.79
Advantage Y
RiverSource High RSHYX 10.0 Average 0.93
Yield Bond R4
Putnam High Yield Y PHYYX 9.8 Average 0.78
American Funds AHTFX 9.8 Average 0.67
American Hi Inc
Tr F
Wells Fargo SHYYX 9.7 Below Avg 0.43
Advantage High
Income I
Minimum
Initial
Fund Name Investment Website
Foreign Large Value
Dodge & Cox 2,500 www.dodgeandcox.com
International
Stock
DFA Intl Value I 0 www.dfafunds.com
Harbor International 2,500 www.harborfunds.com
Inv
DFA Tax-Managed Intl 0 www.dfafunds.com
Value
Thomas White 2,500 www.thomaswhite.com
International
Vanguard 3,000 www.vanguard.com
International
Value
Foreign Large Blend
Fidelity Canada 2,500 www.fidelity.com
Elfun International 500 www.gefunds.com/elfun
Equity
Sextant 1,000 www.saturna.com
International
New Century 1,000 www.newcenturyportfolios.com
International
Fidelity 2,500 www.fidelity.com
International
Discovery
American Funds 250 www.americanfunds.com
EuroPacific Gr F
Manning & Napier 2,000 www.manningnapieradvisors.com
World
Opportunities A
American Funds 250 www.americanfunds.com
EuroPacific Gr
529E
GE International 500 www.gefunds.com
Equity Y
ING Julius Baer 0 www.ingfunds.com
Foreign S
UMB Scout 1,000 www.umb.com
International
Matthews Asian 2,500 www.matthewsfunds.com
Technology
Turner New 2,500 www.turnerinvestments.com
Enterprise
Waddell & Reed Adv 0 www.waddell.com
Science & Tech Y
BlackRock Global Sci 5,000 www.blackrock.com
& Tech Opp Svc
Fidelity Select 2,500 www.fidelity.com
Medical Delivery
T. Rowe Price Health 2,500 www.troweprice.com
Sciences
VALIC I Health 0 www.aigvalic.com
Sciences
JHT Health Sciences 0 www.jhannuities.com
Trust Ser I
Hartford Global 0 www.hartfordlife.com
Health HLS IA
U.S. Global 5,000 www.usfunds.com
Investors
WrldPrecMineral
USAA Precious Metals 3,000 www.usaa.com
and Minerals
Alpine International 1,000 www.alpinecef.com
Real Estate
ING Van Kampen Real 0 www.ingfunds.com
Estate S
Intermediate Bond
Metropolitan West 5,000 www.mwamllc.com
Total Return
Bond M
Managers Bond 2,000 www.managersfunds.com
Westcore Plus Bond 2,500 www.westcore.com
Baird Core Plus Bond 2,500 www.rwbaird.com
Inv
Principal Inv Income 0 www.principal.com
Inst
Vanguard Interm-Term 3,000 www.vanguard.com
Bond Index
TCW Core Fixed- 2,000 www.tcw.com
income I
TCW Total Return 2,000 www.tcw.com
Bond I
Vanguard Interm- 3,000 www.vanguard.com
Term Investment-
Grade
T. Rowe Price New 2,500 www.troweprice.com
Income
High Yield Bond
Fidelity Advisor 2,500 www.fidelity.com
High income
Advantage I
Principal Inv High 0 www.principal.com
Yield II Inst
Fidelity Capital & 2,500 www.fidelity.com
Income
Julius Baer Global 1,000 www.us-funds.juliusbaer.com
High Income A
Putnam High Yield 500 www.putnaminvestments.com
Advantage Y
RiverSource High 2,000 www.riversource.com
Yield Bond R4
Putnam High Yield Y 500 www.putnaminvestments.com
American Funds 250 www.americanfunds.com
American Hi Inc
Tr F
Wells Fargo 0 www.wellsfargofunds.com
Advantage High
Income I
SOURCE: MORNINGSTAR INC. MORNINGSTAR MAKES EVERY EFFORT TO ENSURE THE
ACCURACY AND COMPLETENESS OF THIS DATA, BUT CANNOT GUARANTEE IT.
TOP FUNDS IN EACH CATEGORY RANKED BY FIVE-YEAR RETURNS. ETF RANKED
BY THREE-YEAR RETURNS WITH A MINIMUM INVESTMENT OF $5,000 OR LESS
RETURNS THROUGH 1/30/08.