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Do We Need an Old-Fashioned Depression?

Thursday, September 25 2008

A couple of days ago, I wrote about the idea that we may need a $700 billion bailout (the Dems are still saying it will pass) if we are to weather this current financial crisis without going into a depression.

Today, I ponder this thought: Maybe we actually need a depression.

As a country, we have moved to an economy that is based on debt. The motor of our economy runs on ordinary Americans over-extending themselves with the help of easy credit. Additionally, we have been led to believe that the old economic cycles of rise and fall no longer apply. We, for some reason, think that endless growth is sustainable.

It's not. It's healthy to have periods of downturn.

Unfortunately, by artificially stimulating growth when political expediency made it popular, we have merely set ourselves up for greater instability -- and greater downturns when they finally arrive. Our downturns will get successively worse unless we wake up now and address the underlying problems.

And, argues Paul Farrell at MarketWatch, a depression would actually do this for us. If we were actually made to face the consequences of our actions, we might change our ways. Everything that has been proposed to "help" the economy -- economic stimulus checks and stock market bailouts alike -- have all been done in the name of credit liquidity.

Perhaps we don't need more loans with which to buy more stuff that we don't really need. Maybe what we need is an old-fashioned depression that can help us once again see the value in having modest wants and saving up for the future.

What do you think? Should the government save us from a depression?

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Latest Comments in Do We Need an Old-Fashioned Depression? posts

I understand where you may be coming from on this and I do agree that we need to get back to basics. I have been a proponent of that for quite some time, but seriously, a big depression??
I shudder at the thought. Of course, all we have to go by is what happened during the last one, the Great Depression, and I personally would not look forward to any part of that. If this country were to go into a big depression, who knows where it would stop? We are not in the same type of situation that we were back then. Our economy, although some may not like it, runs on credit. No average American can afford to buy a car and pay cash, or a house, or any other major purchase. I speak with couples on a weekly basis that tell me they end up using their credit cards generally once or twice a month to get by. These are not people who live higher than their means, they have a simple house, both have good jobs, always pay their bills on time, but they are raising 3 or 4 kids and their money is just squeezed tightly. We can say that people shouldn't do that, and we can tell them to cut up the cards, but then they run the risk of bigger problems. The credit situation is a story in itself, but the main problems of a big depression??
Let's see...what about all the jobs that would be lost? First on the list we would lose development and manufacturing and factories - you're talking hundreds of thousands of families out of work from that alone. Then you have all the expendable jobs that are out there...people paying others to do basic maintenance on pools, lawn care, and personal assistants. Those in these fields can make a very comfortable living, but not in the times of a big depression.
You think the foreclosure rate is high now? They wouldn't be able to keep up with the numbers. Many families would end up on the street with no place to go.
People that rely on medicines would swarm the hospitals for help because they can no longer get them and death would be inevitable. Hospitals would be overcrowded with people looking for medicine and food or shelter.
The rest of the Mom and Pop shops would be gone. Federal Bailout would not even be an option. The stock market would crash and people would lose their savings, not to mention the 401K?s and retirement plans that would cease due to banks failing. Crime would rise so dramatically they wouldn't be able to keep up with it. It would be total and utter chaos.
I know that these are extreme instances, but a big depression is an extreme circumstance. A recession that puts people back in check on the basics and what's important in life is one thing, but I'll pass on the big depression.
By: Kim Shuford on 9/29/08 at 12:11 AM
Do We Need an Old-Fashioned Depression?
I agree that a recession would be a good thing. But there are some things that need to be put into perspective. While credit is certainly needed to get things a house and car, and to get some other things, it is a bit dangerous to have so much of it available to just about anyone -- and to have investment bankers investing in the riskiest of it.

I don't necessarily agree that a depression is what is needed, but it was an argument I found interesting. I agree that the effects would be devastating to many innocent people who have just tried to do their best.

But at the same time, we do need something to wake us up collectively to the hugely unstable economy we have created, and to try and make some changes.
By: Miranda Marquit on 9/29/08 at 10:12 AM
Do We Need an Old-Fashioned Depression?
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