The U.S. economic outlook: from a looming federal deficit to the global economy, eight factors...

U.S. economic growth has been positive since the fourth quarter of 2001, but the pace of that growth has not exactly been breathtaking. The good news is that the recession of 2001 was the mildest of the post-World War II period. Economic growth is expected to improve somewhat in 2003 after a lackluster 2002.

Consumer spending has softened, while capital spending and technology sectors remain very weak. The latest wave of mortgage refinance activity should help support consumer spending in the coming months.

THE FEDERAL BUDGET: RED INK RETURNS

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