Trends shaping tomorrow's world: forecasts andimplications for business, government, and...

INTRODUCTION

For more than four decades, Forecasting International (FI) has conducted an ongoing study of the forces changing our world. One of the values of tracking major trends over such a long period is that we usually can see whether sudden shifts are indicators of seismic transitions

or merely temporary anomalies or fads. This has made it possible for us to anticipate many specific developments in fields ranging from terrorist studies to the future of commercial laundries.

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Part One of the latest edition of FI's periodic trend report tracks economics and society; values, concerns, and lifestyles; energy; and the environment. Part Two (to be published in the May-June 2008 issue of THE FUTURIST) will cover technology, management, the labor force and work, and institutions.

Some of these trends examine different aspects of very wide-ranging developments, such as demographics or the changing energy picture. These may overlap to some degree, but for our purposes it is necessary that each trend stand on its own. Many of these trends can be seen in the world at large; a few are limited to the United States. The goal is to provide a portrait of the general environment in which we live and work, and these trends all merit attention from anyone who must prepare for what lies ahead.

Because this forecast project is ongoing, the authors--and the World Future Society--welcome your feedback.

General Long-Term Economic and Societal Trends

* The economy of the developed world is on a path to grow for at least the next five years. Any interruptions will be relatively short-lived.

** The U.S. economy has been expanding continuously, though often weakly, since the fourth quarter of 2001. GDP grew by 3.2% in 2006, slowing to just 0.7% in the first quarter of 2007.

** Job creation and unemployment numbers are puzzling. U.S. unemployment rates hovered around 4.5% in the first half of 2007, which counts as nearly full employment. But fewer new jobs are being created--about 145,000 new jobs a month in the first half of 2007, compared with 186,000 reported in 2006.

** Inflation remains under control, according to official U.S. reports. Government officials argue that core inflation is a more accurate reflection of long-term price trends than the Consumer Price Index, because the cost of food and energy is so erratic. Current increases in food and energy are due to long-term problems--the continuing imbalance between supply and demand of refined petroleum products and the growing diversion of corn to ethanol production. We believe CPI is now a much better measure of the economy than core inflation. If so, there may be trouble ahead for consumers. However, it seems consumers will continue to keep the economy growing, and we see no prospect of a significant downturn in the near future.

** The world's second economic dynamo, China, continues to whir. Its GDP officially grew by 10.7%--adjusted for inflation--in 2006, with 10.4% forecast for 2007 and 2008. Thanks to China's hot export markets, the country's current-account surplus is huge, equivalent to 10.7% of GDP in 2007, with 9.8% expected in 2008.

In fact, China may be even wealthier than it seems. A study of its gray market in 2005, including "all illegal incomes, questionable incomes, and incomes of dubious origins," suggested the true GDP may be 24% larger than the official numbers. This powerhouse will keep the global economy humming even if the United States cannot.

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** Germany, Europe's biggest economy, is performing well. The country's GDP grew by 3% in 2006, its fastest growth since 2000. Inflation is at just 1.9%, and real incomes are rising, if only a little. There are even signs that German consumers are beginning to spend for the first time in years. The Conference Board's leading index for Germany was up 1.6% for the six months ending in April 2007, with a sharp spike at the end of that period. The German economy still has structural problems that could worsen any future downturn, but for the moment it seems good times should continue at least into 2010.

** The French GDP was expected to have grown 2.2% in 2007 and again in 2008. Unfortunately, unemployment is stuck above 8%. The Conference Board's leading indicator for France declined slightly in May 2007. The government absorbs 50.7% of the GDP in taxes but spends more, giving a budget deficit of 2.4%. Plans to cut taxes more than spending could put the deficit over the 3% allowed by the European Union. In all, there is room to wonder how long France can sustain its growth beyond 2008.

** The British economy grew by 2.8% in 2006 and continued growing at that rate, on average, through the first half of 2007. This is even better news than it seems, as the second quarter of 2007 marks the 60th consecutive quarter of growth in Britain. Measured by GDP and inflation, the British economy has been more stable than at any other time in memory. Short of a global recession, the U.K.'s GDP seems destined to continue growing by at least 2.5% annually for the next few years.

** All this spells fairly good news for the European economy as a whole, with 2.3% growth forecast for 2008. Modest weakness in France and Italy will be more than offset by the strength of Germany and the U.K. Europe will remain a sound trading partner for the United States and China for at least the next five years.

** Japan's GDP growth rate hit 4.8% at the end of 2006, its best showing in three years. This growth rate slowed in 2007 but remains positive. Continued growth depends on spending by notoriously wary Japanese consumers. The Japanese economy seems likely to remain healthy for at least a few years beyond 2008.

In the long run, Japan faces significant problems. Its population is aging, its working-age population is shrinking, and its birthrate is the lowest in the industrialized world and still declining. By 2030, the number of workers in Japan will shrink from its current 66 million to about 56 million. Japan's total population is expected to decline by 50% by 2075 and by two-thirds through 2100. At the same time, government debt equals 176% of GDP. This will make it extremely difficult for Tokyo to provide necessary services for tomorrow's elderly.

** Worldwide, improved manufacturing technology will continue to boost productivity and reduce the unit cost of goods. At the same time, workers who remain on the job longer will offset slow growth in the labor force, while the globalization of business will keep pressure on salaries in the developed countries. Thus, both prices and wages should remain under control.

** New growth among all these trading partners should create a "benevolent cycle," in which the health of each partner helps to ensure the continued health of the rest for at least the next several years. Annual global growth is expected to reach 4.4%, on average, in the five years ending in 2013. If a rising tide lifts all boats, most of the world's countries should be floating high in the years ahead.

Implications: The current round of growth should continue at least for the remainder of this decade.

In the long run, the newly capitalist lands of the former Soviet Union should be among the fastest growing new markets, particularly if the oil industries of Kazakhstan and its neighbors, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, can be developed promptly.

China has developed into an effective counterbalance for the U.S. economy. When America hits hard times, China can keep the world from following into recession. We first saw this in the post-9/11 crunch in the United States. This should make the global economy much more stable so long as China remains a vibrant trading nation.

By 2012 or so, India will expand faster than any other market in the world, with China falling into a close second place.

Labor markets will remain tight, particularly in skilled fields. This calls for new creativity in recruiting, benefits, and perks, especially profit sharing. This hypercompetitive business environment demands new emphasis on rewarding speed, creativity, and innovation within the workforce.

The growing gap in wealth between the rich and poor nations will destabilize the world order, inspiring would-be terrorists in developing countries to strike at the wealthy in their home countries and, in some cases, at the richer lands. The growing wealth gap within many Western lands will feed discontent among the less well-off, possibly helping to inspire both random violence and native terrorists in the West.

* The world's population will grow to 9.2 billion by 2050.

** Average annual growth worldwide peaked at 2.19% in 1963 and has fallen steadily since. The U.S. Census Bureau's International Data Base projects that annual growth will fall below 1% in 2016 and below 0.5% by 2047.

** The greatest fertility is found in those countries least able to support their existing populations. Countries with the largest population increases between 2000 and 2050 include Palestinian Territory (217%), Niger (205%), Yemen (168%), Angola (162%), the Democratic Republic of Congo (161%), and Uganda (133%).

** Of the 2.7 billion extra people in the world in 2050, about 40% will live in sub-Saharan Africa and 30% in the Muslim world.

** Even these estimates may be much too low. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), most official projections underestimate both fertility and future gains in longevity. They also assume that life expectancy will grow more slowly in the future, which seems unlikely.

** In contrast to the developing world, many industrialized countries will see fertility rates below the replacement level and hence significant declines in populations, excluding the effects of immigration. This means that the population of the developed nations will fall from 14% of the total world population in 2000 to only 10% in 2050.

** By 2015, the workforce in Japan and much of Europe will be shrinking by 1% per year. By the 2030s, it will contract by 1.5% annually.

Implications: Rapid population growth in the United States compared with its industrialized competitors will reinforce American domination of the global economy, as the European Union falls to third place behind the United States and China.

To meet human nutritional needs over the next 40 years, global agriculture will have to supply as much food as has been produced during all of human history.

Unless fertility in the developed lands climbs dramatically, either would-be retirees will have to remain on the job, or the industrialized nations will have to encourage even more immigration from the developing world. The alternative scenario is a sharp economic contraction and lower living standards.

Another alternative is the widespread automation of service jobs as well as manufacturing in order to accomplish the work needed to support accustomed living standards. However, this requires development of a means other than wages to distribute wealth and to provide both a living income and a fulfilling occupation for workers and would-be workers displaced by machines and software.

Barring enactment of strict immigration controls, rapid migration will continue from poorer Southern Hemisphere countries to richer countries in the North. A growing percentage of job applicants in the United States and Europe will be recent immigrants from developing countries.

* The population of the developed world is living longer.

** Each generation lives longer and remains healthier than the last. Since the beginning of the twentieth century, every generation in the United States has lived three years longer than the previous one. An 80-year-old in 1950 could expect 6.5 more years of life; today's 80-year-olds are likely to survive 8.5 more years.

** Life expectancy in Australia, Japan, and Switzerland is now more than 75 years for males and more than 80 for females.

** A major reason is the development of new pharmaceuticals and medical technologies, which are making it possible to prevent or cure diseases that would have been fatal to earlier generations. In many developed countries, credit also goes to government health programs, which have made these treatments available to many or all residents. In the developing lands, a primary cause is the availability of generic drugs, which cut the cost of care and make health affordable even for the poor.

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** Medical advances that slow the fundamental process of aging now seem to be within reach. This is a controversial issue within the medical community, but the evidence appears quite strong. Such treatments could well help today's middle-aged baby boomers to live far longer than even CSIS anticipates. In the developed world, younger generations are likely to live routinely beyond the century mark.

Implications: Global demand for products and services aimed at the elderly will grow quickly in the immediate future, but this trend may pass as geriatric medicine improves the health of the elderly.

Developed countries may face social instability as a result of competition for resources between retirement-age boomers and their working-age children and grandchildren. At the present rate of growth, public spending on retirement benefits in the United States and other developed countries could be one-fourth of GDP by 2050, even as the number of workers available to support each retiree declines sharply.

Dramatic advances in geriatric medicine could avert a long-expected crisis in health-care financing and delivery. New drugs and technologies, though costly at first, will reduce the cost of caring for patients who would have suffered from disorders delayed, eased, or cured by new therapies.

Reduced incidence of late-life disorders such as cancer, heart disease, arthritis, and possibly Alzheimer's disease would dramatically lower demand for products and services in the senior market, at least in the developed world. FI believes this development is nearer than even many researchers expect.

Healthier aging in the developed world may offer new hope to the world's poorer, sicker lands. Faced with declining growth in their pharmaceutical industries, Western nations are likely to subsidize research and treatment for diseases that burden the poor countries of Africa and Asia. This will give those lands their first real prospects for economic growth and improved quality of life.

* The elderly population is growing dramatically throughout the world.

** Worldwide, the elderly (defined by officials as age 65 and older) numbered 440 million and represented 6% of the global population in 2002. Their numbers will nearly double by 2020 and more than triple by 2050, to nearly 17% of total population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's International Data Base.

** In the developed world, the proportion of people age 60 and over is larger--one-fifth of the population in 2000, growing to one-third in the next half century.

** Between 2000 and 2050, the 60 and older age group in the less-developed countries will grow from only one in 12 to one in five.

** In Germany, the retirement-age population will near 19% of the total in 2010 and will reach 31% in 2050.

** By 2050, one in three Italians will be over 65, nearly double the proportion today.

** Japan's over-65 population will be 22% of the total in 2010 and nearly 37% in 2050.

** Throughout the developed world, population growth is fastest among the very old. In the United States, there are 4.2 million people age 85 and up. By 2050, there will be 19.3 million.

** In Europe, the United States, and Japan, the elderly currently form the wealthiest segment of society.

** Only half of the baby boomers will maintain their standard of living in retirement. One in four will be dependent on government programs.

** In the United States, at least, suburban populations are aging faster than those in the cities.

Implications: Not counting immigration, the ratio of working-age people to retirees needing their support will drop dramatically in the United States, Germany, Italy, Russia, Japan, and other countries. This represents a burden on national economies that will be difficult to sustain under current medical and social security systems.

In the next two to three decades, shortages of health workers will loom large in "aging vulnerable" countries. The United States in particular will need at least twice as many physicians specializing in geriatrics as its current 9,000, as well as half a million more nurses by 2020.

Suburban communities are likely to face a growing demand for social services such as senior day care, public transportation, and other programs for the elderly. This will place a growing strain on local government budgets.

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In the developing countries, where the elderly have traditionally relied on their children for support, this system will begin to break down as middle-aged "children" find themselves still supporting their parents while anticipating their own retirement.

* Technology is creating a knowledge-dependent global society.

** More and more businesses, and entire industries, are based on the production and exchange of information and ideas rather than exclusively manufactured goods or other tangible products.

** At the same time, manufacturers and sellers of physical products are able to capture and analyze much more information about buyers' needs and preferences, making the selling process more efficient and effective.

** The Internet makes it possible for small businesses throughout the world to compete for market share on a level playing field with industry leaders.

** It also enables international organizations such as businesses, non-profits, and political movements to coordinate their operations more effectively.

** The number of Internet users in the United States more than doubled between 2000 and 2007, to nearly 231 million, or 69% of the population. Yet the percentage of the population online has remained almost unchanged since 2004. About 70% now use broadband connections, but adoption of broadband has slowed markedly since 2005.

** In the United States, the "digital divide" seems to be disappearing. Internet access is increasing faster in black and Hispanic households as they catch up with white households. As of early 2004, 61% of black children and 67% of Hispanic youngsters had Internet access at home, compared with 80% of white children.

** Digital appliances--whether computers or telephones--are becoming more integrated, portable, and powerful.

Implications: Knowledge workers are generally better paid than less-skilled workers, and their proliferation may raise overall prosperity.

However, data and communications technologies also are exposing workers in the developed world to competition from low-wage countries. It is not yet clear at what pay level these competing forces will balance.

Even entry-level workers and those in formerly unskilled positions require a growing level of education. For a good career in almost any field, computer competence is mandatory. This is raising the level of education required for a productive role in today's workforce. For many workers, the opportunity for training thus is becoming one of the most desirable benefits any job can offer.

This trend also is enlarging the income gap between well-educated workers and those with a high-school degree or less. That gap will continue to grow.

In 10 years, most digital devices will combine multimedia communication functions and real-time voice translation, so that conversations originating in one of seven or eight common languages can be heard in any of the others. These technologies will enable even more people to become knowledge workers, or at least knowledge-enhanced workers.

For some developing countries, information technology is making it faster and easier to create wealth than a manufacturing economy ever could. India, for example, is rapidly growing a middle class, largely on the strength of its computer and telecom industries. Other lands will follow its example.

* Mass migration is redistributing the world's population.

** About 4 million people immigrated permanently to the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in 2005, 10.4% more than the year before.

** Immigration to western Europe from eastern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, and the Indian subcontinent continues despite controls enacted in the wake of terrorist attacks.

** More than 400,000 legal immigrants from central Europe now live and work in western Europe. Between 3 million and 4 million more migrants are expected to join them in the next 25 years.

** In China, about 160 million people have moved from rural areas to cities in recent years.

** There are nearly 100 million international migrant workers in the world, according to the United Nations. About 30 million live in Europe, 20 million in Africa, and 18 million in North America. These figures include only the workers themselves, not their dependents.

** Immigration is quickly changing the ethnic composition of the U.S. population. In 2000, Latinos made up 12.6% of the U.S. population; by 2050, they will account for 24.5%. Asians in the United States, currently 3.8% of the population, will comprise 8% by 2050, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau figures.

** Higher fertility rates among the immigrant Latino population will accelerate this trend. As of 2002, women in the United States produced about two children during their lives, just enough to maintain the population. Among Hispanics, the average was more than 2.7 births per woman. Among Mexican immigrants, it was nearly 2.9.

** At the same time, there is a small countertrend of Gen Xers and, especially, millennials moving to other countries to pursue business opportunities or for cultural interest.

Implications: Migration will accelerate in the years ahead as native workforces shrink in most developed lands.

Impoverished migrants will place a growing strain on social-security systems in the industrialized countries of Europe and North America. Similar problems will continue to afflict the urban infrastructures of China and India.

Remittances from migrants to their native lands are helping to relieve poverty in many developing countries. Globally, these payments exceeded $230 billion in 2005, according to the World Bank.

Significant backlashes against foreign migrants will be seen more frequently in the years ahead, even in the most peaceful lands. For example, in Scandinavia, resentment against foreign workers is strong, in part because they can return to their native lands after three years of employment and collect a pension equal to the minimum wage for the rest of their lives.

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the rail bombings in London and Madrid, the large number of Muslim immigrants in Britain, France, and other European lands has inspired suspicion and some persecution.

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* Despite some xenophobic reactions to immigrants, there is growing acceptance of diversity. However, this is subject to local interruptions and reversals.

** Migration is mixing disparate peoples and forcing them to find ways to coexist peacefully and productively.

** The Internet and other technologies promote long-distance communication and builds links between distant and disparate people.

** Mass media, including television, radio, films, interactive games, and music--are homogenizing forces in global culture as they promote a common language, mores, and cultural reference points. In the United States, for instance, television encourages the spread of standard accents and language patterns.

** The globalization of business is having a similar impact. Throughout the United States and Europe, regional differences, attitudes, incomes, and lifestyles are blurring as business carries people from one area to another.

** Intermarriage also continues to mix cultures geographically, ethnically, socially, and economically.

** Minorities are beginning to exert more influence over national agendas as the growing number of African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians in the United States is mirrored by the expanding population of refugees and former "guest workers" throughout Europe.

** Britons increasingly support staying in the European Union, according to a September 2007 survey by the polling firm Ipsos MORI. In March 2001, 39% of those surveyed said they would vote to keep the U.K. in the European Union, and 42% favored getting out. By 2007, 51% supported staying in while 39% wanted out.

Implications: While technologies increasingly facilitate cultural and professional exchanges around the world, local conflicts will continue to erupt in societies where xenophobia is common.

Companies will hire ever more minority workers and will be expected to adapt to their values and needs. Much of the burden of accommodating foreign-born residents will continue to fall on employers, who must make room for their languages and cultures in the workplace. Public schools and libraries must find more effective ways to educate this future workforce.

* The global economy is growing more integrated.

** Only half of the world's 100 largest economies are nation-states. The rest are multinational corporations.

** Companies are increasingly farming out high-cost, low-payoff secondary functions to suppliers, service firms, and consultants, many of them located in other countries.

** Companies in high-wage countries are also outsourcing management and service jobs to low-wage countries. An estimated 3.3 million U.S. jobs are expected to migrate to India and China by 2015. Some 40 million jobs are believed vulnerable to outsourcing.

** There is a nascent countertrend among job-receiving countries to establish branches in the donor lands. For example, in September 2007, India's Wipro announced that it was setting up a programming division in Virginia, both to hire top-quality American programmers and to help tap the lucrative government market.

** Parts for the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner are being constructed in at least eight countries around the world for assembly in the United States.

** Toyota has manufacturing or assembly plants on every continent except Antarctica.

** Jobs in western Europe are migrating to eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and the English- and French-speaking former colonies of Africa. India has begun to ship jobs to even lower-cost countries in Africa.

** In the European Union, relaxation of border and capital controls and the adoption of a common currency and uniform product standards continue to make it easier for companies to distribute products and support functions throughout the Continent.

** The Internet continues to bring manufacturers closer to remote customers, cutting middlemen out of the distribution chain. Business-to-business (B2B) marketing on the Internet has brought new efficiency to many industries.

Implications: The growth of e-commerce enables businesses to shop globally for the cheapest raw materials and supplies. In niche markets, the Internet also makes it possible for small companies to compete with giants worldwide with relatively little investment.

This has brought new opportunities for quality-control problems and fraudulent cost-cutting by suppliers, as seen in the recent spate of tainted food and other products coming from China.

The Web also has created a generation of "e-preneurs" whose businesses exist largely on the Internet, with production, fulfillment, and other functions all outsourced to specialty firms.

Demand will continue to grow for employee incentives suited to other cultures, aid to executives going overseas, and the many other aspects of doing business in foreign countries.

However, rising demand for foreign-language training is likely to be a temporary phenomenon, as more countries adopt English as part of their basic school curricula.

Western companies may have to accept that proprietary information will be shared not just with their immediate partners in Asian joint ventures, but also with other members of the partners' trading conglomerates. In high technology and aerospace, that may expose companies to extra scrutiny due to national-security concerns.

Economic ties can give richer, more powerful countries considerable influence over their junior partners. Thus far, China has been the most successful at wielding this "soft" power. This has given it the ability to undermine U.S. foreign policy even as it secures its energy and raw-materials needs.

International fraud, money laundering, and other economic crimes (particularly carried out via the Internet) are a growing problem, and one that can be expected to spread.

* Militant Islam continues to spread and gain power.

** It has been clear for years that the Muslim lands face severe problems with religious extremists dedicated to advancing their political, social, and doctrinal views by any means necessary. Those problems often have spilled over into the rest of the world. They will do so again.

** Most of the Muslim lands are overcrowded and short of resources. Many are poor, save for the oil-rich states of the Middle East. Virtually all have large populations of young men, often unemployed, who are frequently attracted to violent extremist movements.

** During its proxy war with the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, the United States massively fortified the Muslim extremist infrastructure by supplying it with money, arms, and above all training.

** It is making a similar mistake today. The overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the U.S. occupation of Iraq has inspired a new generation of jihadists, who have been trained and battle-hardened in the growing insurgency.

** In a now-declassified National Security Estimate, the U.S. intelligence community concluded that al-Qaeda was more powerful in 2007 than it had been before the so-called "war on terror" began--more dangerous even than it had been when it planned the attacks of September 11, 2001.

** American support for Israel has also made the United States a target for the hatred of Muslim extremists.

Implications: Virtually all of the Muslim lands face an uncertain, and possibly bleak, future of political instability and growing violence. The exceptions are the oil states, where money can still buy relative peace, at least for now.

In a 1994 terrorism study for the U.S. Department of Defense and other government clients, Forecasting International predicted that by 2020 a strong majority of the world's major Muslim lands could be in the hands of extremist religious governments. That forecast still appears sound.

Iraq is likely to become the next fundamentalist Muslim regime. Once U.S. forces leave Iraq, Iran will support the establishment in Baghdad of a Shiite regime much like its own.

There is a 1 in 10 chance that this will set off a general war in the Middle East, as Sunni-dominated states intercede to protect Iraqi Sunnis against Shi'a domination. However, Iraq and Saudi Arabia are already negotiating to keep this situation under control.

The West, and particularly the United States, must expect more--and more violent--acts of terrorism for at least the next 20 years.

Trends in Values, Concerns, and Lifestyles

* Societal values are changing rapidly.

** Industrialization raises educational levels, changes attitudes toward authority, reduces fertility, alters gender roles, and encourages broader political participation. This process is just beginning throughout the developing world. Witness the growing literacy, declining fertility, and broad voter turnout seen in India over the last decade.

** Developed societies increasingly take their cue from Gen X and the millennial generation (aka Gen Y or generation dot-com), rather than the baby boomers who dominated the culture for most of four decades. This will tend to homogenize basic attitudes throughout the world, because Gen Xers and especially the millennials around the globe have more in common with each other than with their parents.

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** Millennials value and display both self-reliance and cooperation. They need self-reliance because they believe individuals can no longer count on government social-security income, pensions, or other benefits. They value and excel at cooperation because group action often is the best way to optimize the use of scarce resources, such as retirement savings.

Implications: The highly polarized political environment that has plagued the United States since the 1980s will slowly moderate as results-oriented Gen Xers and millennials begin to dominate the national dialogue.

As national security concerns have begun to lose their immediacy, family issues are regaining their significance in American society: long-term health care, day care, early childhood education, antidrug campaigns, and the environment. Concerns about health care, education, and the environment are already shaping the 2008 U.S. presidential campaign.

Demand for greater accountability and transparency in business will be crucial for countries that wish to attract international investors.

Reaction against changing values is one of the prime motives for cultural extremism, not only in the Muslim world and in parts of India, but also in the United States and Europe, where it appears in the form of hate crimes against immigrants.

The spread of Westernized Gen X and millennial values in the developing world will provoke an even greater reaction from fundamentalists, who will see it as cultural imperialism by America and Europe and as a threat to the piety of their children, and therefore to their afterlife in Paradise. This is likely to make the anti-West movement among Muslims even more violent and widespread.

At the same time, a reaction against immigrants could trigger hate crimes against the foreign born on a scale not recently seen in the United States.

* Young people place increasing importance on economic success, which they have come to expect.

** Throughout the 1990s--effectively, their entire adult lives--Gen Xers and the millennials knew only good economic times, and the economic downturn at the turn of the century seemed to them a confusing aberration rather than a predictable part of the business cycle. Most expect to see hardship on a national level, but they both want and expect prosperity for themselves.

** Growing numbers of people now become entrepreneurs. Gen Xers and the millennials are the most entrepreneurial generations in history.

** In the United States especially, most young people have high aspirations, but many lack the means to achieve them. High-school dropout rates average between 18% and 30%, depending on who does the counting. Inner-city dropout rates are much higher by anyone's measure, with up to half of all students leaving high school before graduation in the worst districts.

** Only about one in four high-school graduates goes on to receive a college degree. Many of the rest wish to go, but cannot afford the high cost of further schooling.

** Without higher education, expectations may never be met. On average, someone with a bachelor's degree in the United States earned $54,689 in 2005, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, compared with $29,448 for someone with only a high-school diploma. High-school dropouts earned just $19,915, while those with a professional degree raked in $119,009.

Implications: Entrepreneurialism will be a global trend, as members of Generation X and the millennials throughout the world tend to share values. Gen X and millennial entrepreneurs are largely responsible for the current economic growth in India and China, where they are becoming a major force in the Communist party. In India, the younger generations dress and think more like their American counterparts than their parents. In China, the democratic fervor that spawned Tiananmen Square has been replaced by capitalist entrepreneurialism.

If younger-generation workers find their ambitions thwarted, they will create growing pressure for economic and social reform. If change does not come fast enough in the developing world, disappointed expectations will accelerate the brain drain of young people emigrating to the developed lands.

* Tourism, vacationing, and travel (especially international) will continue to grow in the next decade and beyond.

** International tourism grew by more than 6% in the first half of 2007, thanks in part to global prosperity. By 2020, international tourist arrivals are expected to reach 1.6 billion annually, up from 842 million in 2006.

** The number of Americans traveling to foreign countries (excluding Canada and Mexico) crashed following the September 11 attacks. Today, their numbers are growing by about 5.5% annually, even faster than before 2001.

** In contrast, the United States received only 21.7 million visitors from countries other than Canada and Mexico, down 17% from the peak in 2001, even though the dollar's weakness on foreign exchange markets should have made the United States a more attractive destination. The decline stems from tighter American entry restrictions enacted in the name of security and international hostility inspired by the Iraq war.

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** However, U.S. domestic tourism is growing about 2.3% each year.

** Chinese spending for international travel will reach $100 billion by 2008. By 2020, according to the World Trade Organization, 100 million Chinese will fan out across the globe, replacing Americans, Japanese, and Germans as the world's most numerous travelers. Some 50 million Indian tourists will join them.

** China soon will become the world's most popular destination as well, as preparations for the 2008 Summer Olympic Games focus international attention on Beijing. By 2020, China can expect 130 million international arrivals.

** Online travel services are displacing traditional travel agencies in all but cruises and other luxury markets. In the United States, the online travel industry grossed $79 billion in 2006 and is expected to take in $146 billion by 2010.

** Multiple, shorter vacations spread throughout the year are continuing to replace the traditional two-week vacation.

Implications: Travel will grow by at least 5% per year for the foreseeable future.

Tourism offers growing opportunities for out-of-the-way destinations that have not yet cashed in on the boom. This will make it an important industry for still more developing countries.

American domestic tourism will continue to grow by an average of 2.3% per year through at least 2011.

The tourism industry will create 3.3 million new jobs worldwide. Jobs dependent on tourism will comprise nearly 14% of the global workforce.

Direct employment will not grow quite as quickly, but it will be up 1.7% annually, to nearly 87.5 million jobs, while indirect employment will account for some 260 million jobs around the world.

This will bring major opportunities for the travel industries of Southeast Asia and Africa, where Chinese and Indian tourists can take quick, inexpensive vacations.

Retirees who travel off-season will further ease the cyclical peaks and valleys typical of the industry.

Cruise ships will continue to lure retirees. Some liners are offering full-time residency--creating new options for assisted-living arrangements.

* The physical-culture and personal-health movements will remain strong, but far from universal.

** Emphasis on preventive medicine continues to grow. Of late, a few insurance carriers--but more each year--have expanded coverage or reduced premiums for policyholders with healthy lifestyles.

** Where change has been slow, legislation has sometimes mandated it. Since 2005, more than half of states have required insurers to pay for mammograms.

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** Health is continuing to improve in the United States, but less quickly. During the 1990s, health in the United States improved by 1.5% annually, based on such measures as smoking prevalence, health-insurance coverage, infant mortality rates, and premature deaths. During the 2000s, health improvement has slowed to just 0.2% a year, largely due to personal choices.

** Smoking is in general decline in the United States. Only 21% of Americans smoked cigarettes as of 2005, down from 30% in 1983. About 42.5% of current smokers reported that they had tried to stop smoking within the last year. However, the percentage of smokers has stabilized since 2000.

** The antismoking movement is finally making its way to Europe. Ireland banned smoking from its pubs late in April 2004. In 2006, France banned smoking in public facilities. Britain followed suit in 2007.

** Health consciousness is spreading to Europe. For example, a recent poll found that two-thirds of Britons now spend more to maintain a healthy lifestyle than they did a decade ago, and three out of four say they enjoy leading a healthy lifestyle.

** The current epidemic of obesity is especially troubling. The proportion of children over age six who are overweight has tripled since 1980, to about 18%.

** The global obesity crisis is a significant countertrend to the physical-culture movement. Poor diet, physical inactivity, and associated obesity contribute to 47% of diseases and 60% of deaths worldwide.

** Developing countries that "Westernize" their diets by consuming more foods high in fat, sugar, and salt are at risk of epidemic obesity, including among children and adolescents.

** In dramatic contrast, much of the developing world still worries more about eating enough than about eating well.

Implications: As the nutrition and wellness movements spread, they will further improve the health of the elderly.

Better health in later life will make people more conscious of their appearance and physical condition. Thus, health clubs will continue to boom, and some will specialize in the needs of older fitness buffs. Diet, fitness, stress control, and wellness programs will prosper.

U.S. states will continue to mandate insurance coverage of mammography. By 2012, they will begin to require coverage of sigmoidoscopy.

By 2015, Congress will add coverage of many preventive-care activities to Medicare.

The cost of health care for American baby boomers and their children could be much lower in later life than is now believed. However, Asia faces an epidemic of cancer, heart disease, emphysema, and other chronic and fatal illnesses related to health habits.

Like tobacco companies, producers of snack foods, liquor, and other unhealthy products will increasingly target markets in developing countries where this trend has yet to be felt.

Chronic diseases related to obesity burden national economies and could thwart economic progress in developing countries.

* Consumerism is still growing.

** A networked society is a consumerist society. Shoppers increasingly have access to information about pricing, services, delivery time, and customer reviews on the Internet. Marketers, of course, can also check the competition's offerings. This may gradually halt the decline of prices and shift competition increasingly to improvements in service and salesmanship.

** A possible reaction to this trend began in June 2007 when the U.S. Supreme Court decreed that manufacturers have the right to set minimum retail prices for their products.

** Children in the United States become shoppers as young as age six and become aware of brands at age two or three, due largely to child-focused advertising.

** The millennial generation is becoming increasingly prone to compulsive spending. In the United States, 10% of millennials can be classified as clinically compulsive spenders, compared with 5% of Gen Xers and perhaps 3% of baby boomers.

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Implications: Europe, Japan, China, and other markets are undergoing the same revolution that has replaced America's neighborhood stores with cost-cutting warehouse operations, discounters such as Wal-Mart, and "category killers" like Staples and Home Depot.

However, the cultural and political power of farmers and small shop owners has slowed this trend in some areas, particularly in Japan.

Consumer advocacy agencies and organizations will continue to proliferate, promoting improved content labels, warning notices, nutrition data, and the like on packaging, TV, the Internet, and even restaurant menus.

Due to recent cases of contaminated food being imported from China, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will be required to improve screening of incoming food products. However, it will not receive adequate funding to do the job effectively.

As prices fall to commodity levels and online stores can list virtually every product and brand in their industry without significant overhead, service is the only field left in which marketers on and off the Internet can compete effectively.

Branded items with good reputations are even more important for developing repeat business.

Consumer debt may be an even greater problem for millennials than it has been for their elders.

* The women's equality movement is losing the last of its significance, thanks largely to past successes.

** Some 70 million women, 59% of those age 16 and older, participated in the U.S. labor force in 2006. Among those ages 25 to 54, more than three-fourths either held a job or were looking for one. Three-fourths of employed women worked full time.

** Gen Xers and millennials are virtually gender-blind in the workplace, compared with older generations. This is true even in societies such as India and Japan, which have long been male-dominated, though not yet in conservative Muslim lands.

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** Younger generations of women are better educated. Fully 58% of American college students were women as of 2006. Among Caucasians, only 56% are female, but 60% of African-American college students are women. Among students over age 25, nearly two-thirds are women. And women earn nearly 60% of the bachelor's and master's degrees awarded in the United States.

** There were nearly 10.4 million women-owned U.S. businesses in 2006, up 42% from 1997. The increase was nearly twice the national average for all businesses. Women-owned firms currently employ 13 million people and generate $1.9 trillion in sales, according to the Center for Women's Business Research. However, most are small retail and service operations that offer few opportunities to build major corporations.

** Corporations are adding more women to their boards of directors. In Britain's top 20 firms, 90% now have at least one female director on their boards, reports the U.K. Department of Trade and Industry. In the United States, women comprised 14.6% of the directors at Fortune 500 companies in 2006.

** An infrastructure is evolving that allows women to make more decisions and to exercise political power, especially where both spouses work. One indication of growing dependence on the wife: Life insurance companies are selling more policies to women than to men.

** More women are entering the professions, politics, and the judiciary. As we have seen in Iraq, they also are finding roles as combat soldiers.

** From 1979 to 2005, median wages for women in the United States with college degrees rose by 58%, compared with only 24% for their male counterparts.

** In 2004, one-third of American women earned more than their husbands, up from 24% in 1987.

** According to some studies, women have nearly achieved pay parity with men in the United States when factors such as educational level, responsibilities, and seniority are taken into account.

** The fraction of women entering the American labor force has leveled off in recent years. The percentage of female workers is likely to remain approximately stable until some force appears to begin a new trend.

Implications: In the developed world, whatever careers remain relatively closed to women will open wide in the years ahead.

There is little sign of progress for women in much of the developing world. India is an exception, because growing literacy has given women the chance to earn income outside the home, and with it value other than as wives and mothers.

Women's increasing entrepreneurialism will allow the formation of entrenched "old girl" networks comparable to the men's relationships that once dominated business.

Demand for child care, universal health coverage, and other family-oriented services will continue to grow, particularly in the United States, where national services have yet to develop. Over the next 20 years, American companies may increasingly follow the example of their counterparts in Europe, whose taxes pay for national day-care programs and other social services the United States lacks.

* Family structures are becoming more diverse.

** In periods of economic difficulty, children and grandchildren move back in with parents and grandparents to save on living expenses. Many bring their own children with them. In the United States, one-third of Gen Xers have returned home at some point in their early lives. Among the millennial generation, the figure is even higher.

** The 2001 Census found that multigenerational households are the fastest growing group in the United States.

** Many grandparents are raising their grandchildren because drugs and AIDS have left the middle generation either unable or unavailable to care for their children. This trend is strongest in Africa, where AIDS has orphaned some 12 million children, half between the ages of 10 and 14. In Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe, more than one in five children will be orphaned by 2010, according to UNICEF. At that time, there will be 25 million AIDS orphans in sub-Saharan Africa. In the seven African countries most affected by AIDS, life expectancy at birth has now dropped below 40 years.

** Among the poor, grandparents also provide live-in care for the children of single mothers trying to gain an education or build a career.

** The average age of marriage is rising, and growing numbers of people either do not marry or remain single after divorce. The number of people living together outside marriage thus continues to rise.

** At least five U.S. states now permit same-sex marriage or have enacted domestic-partnership laws that provide similar protections: Massachusetts, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, and New Hampshire. In this, they join such countries as Denmark, Germany, the Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, and most recently Switzerland. Many American companies now grant spousal benefits to the same-sex partners of employees, even where states do not.

** The nuclear family also is rebounding in the United States, as baby boom and Gen X parents focus on their children and grandparents retain more independence and mobility.

** Nonetheless, the fastest-growing "family" structure consists of a single adult living alone.

Implications: Tax and welfare policies need adjustment to cope with families in which heads of households are retired or unable to work.

Policies also need modification for those who receive Social Security and work to support an extended family.

In the United States, the debates over homosexuality and the "decline of the family" will remain polarizing for the foreseeable future.

The next debate is likely to focus on granting parental rights to more than two parents, as when a sperm or egg donor wants a role in the life of a child whose official parents are the recipients.

* Privacy, once a defining right for Americans, is dying quickly.

** Internet communications, a basic part of life for many people, are nearly impossible to protect against interception, and postings to blogs and Web forums are nearly immortal. Governments around the world are working to ensure their unfettered access to this information.

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** Widespread surveillance of private individuals is technically feasible and economically viable, as tiny, powerful cameras now cost next to nothing. Increased surveillance has become socially acceptable in an age when many people fear terrorism and crime.

** The USA Patriot Act of 2001 sets aside the constitutional requirement of a search warrant for government officials who wish to search someone's home in order to thwart possible terrorism. Its provisions have been used to justify searches in pursuit of drug dealers and even copyright abusers, in one attempt thus far blocked by the courts.

** The contents of most Internet-connected computers are open to virtually unobstructed snooping by anyone with a minimum of skill and the will to examine them. All but the most secure can be invaded by more capable hackers.

** In Britain, an estimated 4.2 million surveillance cameras watch over streets, office buildings, schools, and shopping centers, making the U.K. one of the most closely monitored nations in the world. On average, Britons are caught on camera an estimated 300 times per day.

** Video surveillance systems have been installed in Chicago; New York City; Washington, D.C.; Tampa, Florida; and other cities around the United States. In most cases, local police departments have been a driving force in this movement. Protests thus far have been small and ineffective.

** In the United States, the growth of surveillance also is driven by the fear that lawsuits: Following a future terrorist attack, some could claim that a public facility's failure to install monitoring equipment constitutes negligence.

Implications: Most surveillance provisions of the USA Patriot Act will survive, even if the law itself is repealed or modified.

In the absence of a major terrorist event, most Americans will continue to consider privacy a right, and privacy-related lawsuits are likely to proliferate as more people feel violated or inconvenienced by surveillance. However, courts will be unsympathetic to such suits so long as conservative appointees dominate the bench.

In large and medium-sized cities around the world, spaces that remain unwatched by video cameras will continue to shrink.

Growing numbers of companies, and even private citizens, will encrypt their computer data.

The number of criminal cases based on surveillance will grow rapidly in countries with the required technological sophistication and infrastructure.

Private citizens increasingly will use similar technologies to watch over government abuse, as in cases where bystanders have recorded police misconduct with their cell-phone cameras.

It will be nearly impossible for criminals to operate without being observed.

Energy Trends

* Despite efforts to develop alternative sources of energy, oil consumption is still rising rapidly.

** The world used only 57 million barrels of oil per day in 1973, when the first major price shock hit. By 2004, it was using 83 million barrels daily, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Consumption is expected to reach 118 million barrels daily by 2030.

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** However, oil's share of world energy consumption has begun to decline: It is expected to drop from 40% in 1999 to about 37% in 2020.

** The United States consumes about 20.7 million barrels of oil per day. Nearly 60% of that is imported.

** In 2005, the most recent data available, China consumed 6.5 million barrels of oil, making it the second-largest user of oil in the world. Its oil demand has grown by 7% per year, on average, since 1990. Most of China's imported oil (more than 3.1 million barrels a day) comes from the Middle East.

Implications: Oil prices now are high enough to provide an incentive to develop new fields, such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the deep fields under the Gulf of Mexico.

Environmentally sensitive areas will be developed using new drilling techniques, double-walled pipelines, and other precautions that make it possible to extract oil with less damage to the surroundings.

Any prolonged rise of oil prices to triple digits will erode support for environmental protections in the United States, leading to widespread development of whatever energy sources are most readily available, regardless of the long-term consequences.

* Contrary to popular belief, the world is not about to run out of oil.

** Claims that the world's oil reserves may be up to 20% smaller than previously believed are not credible, in part because they originate with an odd coalition of the American Petroleum Institute and alternative energy proponents--two groups with a vested interest in keeping oil prices high.

** In any event, 80% of OPEC's estimated supply would still be oil enough to supply the world for the next 64 years.

** As a result of intensive exploration, the world's proven oil reserves climbed steadily since the 1980s and now hover at over 1.3 trillion barrels. Natural gas reserves stand at about 6.2 trillion cubic feet in 2007, about 1% more than a year earlier.

** Recent discoveries of major oil fields in Canada and under the Gulf of Mexico have substantially increased the world's known oil reserves.

** OPEC officials claim that the 11 member countries can provide for the world's energy needs for roughly the next 80 years. OPEC supplies about 40% of the world's oil and holds 60% of the known oil available internationally.

** Exploitation of oil in Venezuela has barely begun. Reserves there may be even larger than those in Saudi Arabia, according to some estimates. However, it is more expensive to refine and use, because it contains much higher levels of sulfur than the Middle Eastern oil currently in production.

** India also is believed to own substantial reserves of oil in deposits beneath the Indian Ocean.

Implications: Higher oil prices should make it cost-effective to develop new methods of recovering oil from old wells. Technologies already developed could add nearly 50% to the world's recoverable oil supply.

OPEC will continue to supply most of the oil used by the developed world. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, OPEC oil production will grow to about 57 million barrels of oil per day by 2020.

Russia and Kazakhstan will be major suppliers if the necessary pipelines can be completed and political uncertainties do not block investment by Western oil companies. Russia will grow into the world's second-largest oil producer by 2010.

Alternative energy sources face problems with economic viability. Barring substantial incentives, this will inhibit efforts to stem global warming for the foreseeable future.

A generalized war in the Middle East after the United States leaves Iraq could drastically reduce the region's oil output. This is unlikely, but the impact of such a conflict would be too large to ignore the possibility.

The spread of fundamentalist Muslim regimes with a grudge against the West also could keep OPEC oil out of the American market.

If the United States loses access to Middle Eastern oil, it will buy even more from Canada and Venezuela, tap the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, and develop the deep-water fields under the Gulf of Mexico much faster than expected.

Broader development of global energy resources could partially insulate the West from the effects of attacks on their energy supplies.

* When not perturbed by political or economic instability, oil prices will average around $65 per barrel, according to the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2007.

** Prices approaching $100 in the fall of 2007 are an aberration caused by the Iraq war and a global shortage of refinery capacity.

** New energy demand from the fast-growing economies of China and India has raised the floor that until 2004 supported oil in the $25 per barrel range.

** New oil supplies are being developed in the former Soviet Union, China, and other parts of the world.

** The 20 most-industrialized countries all have at least three-month supplies of oil in tankers and underground storage. Most have another three months' worth in "strategic reserves." In times of high oil prices, customer nations can afford to stop buying until the costs come down.

** New refineries in Saudi Arabia and other countries are scheduled to come on line by 2010.

Implications: In response to high (by American standards) gas prices, the U.S. government probably will boost domestic oil production and refining to increase the reserve of gasoline and heating oil. This stockpile would be ready for immediate use in case of future price hikes. This will make it easier to negotiate with OPEC.

A key step in controlling oil prices, and an indicator of Washington's seriousness about doing so, would be development of at least four new refineries around the country by the government, probably for lease to commercial producers. We rate the odds at no more than 50-50.

The United States almost certainly will drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, though efforts will be made to minimize environmental damage, such as requiring that drilling take place only in the winter, when the tundra is rock hard.

By 2020, the new fields under the Gulf of Mexico will come on line, putting even more pressure on oil prices.

* Growing competition from other energy sources also will help to limit the price of oil.

** Nuclear plants supply about 15% of Russian electricity. Plans call for construction of 26 more nuclear plants by 2030, when 25% or more of the nation's electricity will be nuclear.

** In early 2004, China had only nine operating nuclear power plants. It plans to build 30 more by 2020, bringing nuclear energy consumption from 16 billion kWh in 2000 to 142 billion kWh in 2020.

** By 2020, Russia will consume 129 billion kWh of nuclear energy per year, while Canada will use 118 billion kWh. Even the United States is weighing the construction of new reactors.

** In contrast, hydroelectric power generation has been declining since its 1996 peak of 727.62 billion kWh.

** Solar, geothermal, wind, and wave energy will ease power problems where these resources are most readily available, though they will supply only a very small fraction of the world's energy in the foreseeable future.

** Renewable sources accounted for about 14% of the world's energy in 2005. However, more than half of this came from hydroelectric dams, which have their own environmental issues and are no longer a growing segment of the industry.

** Worldwide wind-power generating capacity grew by 30% annually in the decade ending in 2005, to a total of 59,000 MW, according to the Earth Policy Institute and the World-watch Institute. This is a 12-fold increase from a decade earlier.

** Photovoltaic solar energy production has been growing at a steady 25% per year since 1980. Commercial solar cells are now cheap enough to compete with other power sources, especially in sunny regions.

** Natural gas burns cleanly, and there is enough of it available to supply the world's total energy demand for the next 200 years. Consumption of natural gas is growing by 3.3% annually, compared with 1.8% for oil.

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** Although most of the world's scientists gave up on cold fusion long ago, the U.S. Navy has continued work on the process. Its researchers have announced development of a reproducible cold fusion system that consistently releases more energy than it consumes.

** According to the Department of Energy's Energy Information Agency, shifting 20% of America's energy supply to renewable resources by 2020 would have almost no impact on the total cost of power. At present, less than 5% of the energy used in the United States comes from renewable resources.

Implications: Though oil will remain the world's most important energy resource for years to come, two or three decades forward it should be less of a choke point in the global economy.

Nuclear power will supply a growing portion of the world's energy needs. China intends to build 32 nuclear power plants by 2020. By 2025, there will be roughly 1,000 operating plants around the world. Russia alone hopes to export 60 nuclear plants to other countries by 2030.

Wind, solar, and geothermal power also will grow, but with much less impact on the world's energy supply and cost.

Declining reliance on oil eventually could help to reduce air and water pollution, at least in the developed world. By 2060, a costly but pollution-free hydrogen economy may at last become practical.

Fusion power remains a distant hope. Cold fusion also remains a long shot for practical power, but FI believes it can no longer be discounted. If the Navy's reports of success prove correct, power plants based on the process could begin to come on line by 2030.

Environmental Trends

* People around the world are becoming increasingly sensitive to environmental issues as the consequences of neglect, indifference, and ignorance become ever more apparent.

** Pew Research Center's 2007 Global Attitudes Project survey of 46 countries found much more concern for the environment than did the 2002 survey. In the United States, the number citing environmental problems as the top global threat rose from 23% to 37%. In India, the number went from 32% to 49%. In another survey of Indian concerns in the late 1990s, the environment had come in dead last. In both Japan and China, 70% of respondents said environmental problems were the greatest global threat to the world.

** The health impacts of pollution are well established. In the United States alone, medical researchers estimate that some 64,000 people each year die from cardiopulmonary disease as a result of breathing particulates. In sub-Saharan Africa, the toll is between 300,000 and 500,000 deaths per year. Pollution-related respiratory diseases kill about 1.4 million people a year in China and Southeast Asia.

** In developing countries, indoor air pollution is an even bigger problem. Indoor smoke from burning fuels such as dung and wood--which more than half the world's population relies on for cooking and other basic energy needs--creates particulates that penetrate deeply into the lungs. An estimated 1.6 million people a year die from indoor air pollution, according to the World Health Organization.

** None of India's major cities meets WHO air quality standards. Indoor smoke from cooking fires kills an estimated 500,000 people in India each year, mostly women and children.

** In all, the World Health Organization estimates that 3 million people die each year from the effects of air pollution, about 5% of the total deaths annually.

** The European Parliament estimates that 70% of the Continent's drinking water contains dangerous concentrations of nitrate pollution.

** In the United States, there is growing concern that pollutants such as perchlorate, the gasoline additive MTBE, and even the chlorine used to kill waterborne pathogens may represent significant health concerns.

** Though some debate remains about the cause, the fact of global warming has become undeniable. At Palmer Station on Anvers Island, Antarctica, for example, the average annual temperature has risen by 3[degrees]C-4[degrees]C since the 1940s, and by an amazing 7[degrees]C-9[degrees]C in June--early winter in that hemisphere.

** Governments are taking more-active measures to protect the environment. After years of ineffective gestures, Costa Rica has incorporated about 25% of its land into protected areas, such as national parks. Cambodia has protected a million-acre forest. Gabon has set aside 10% of its land for parks. Liberia is protecting 155,000 acres of forest in an effort to safeguard endangered western chimpanzees. In 1999, Brazil raised the maximum fine for illegal logging.

** In an effort to promote cleaner energy technologies and to slow global warming, most European nations now tax carbon emissions or fossil fuels. In Germany, a carbon tax raises the cost of gasoline by nearly 11 cents per gallon.

** Antipollution legislation in Europe could reduce premature deaths by 80,000 between 2000 and 2020, according WHO. In Germany alone, 17,000 premature deaths would be avoided.

** Anticipating a three-foot rise in sea levels, the Netherlands is spending $1 billion to build new dikes.

Implications: Carbon dioxide will remain a problem for many years to come. If air pollution were halted instantly, it would take an estimated 200 years for C[O.sub.2] and other greenhouse gases to return to preindustrial levels.

Recent analyses say there is a 90% chance that the planet's average annual temperature will rise between 3[degrees]C and 9[degrees]C over the next century. This will cause severe dislocations both for plant and animal populations and for many human activities.

Environmental policies will provoke a political backlash wherever they conflict with entrenched interests, as they have long done in the American West. However, a solid majority of voters throughout the developed world now recognize the need to clean up the environment, and especially to control greenhouse warming. Throughout most of the world, polluters and private beneficiaries of public assets will increasingly confront restrictive regulations designed to serve the interests of the community at large.

* Water shortages will be a continuing problem for much of the world.

** By 2040, at least 3.5 billion people will run short of water, almost 10 times as many as in 1995. By 2050, fully two-thirds of the world's population could be living in regions with chronic, widespread shortages of water.

** Contaminated water is implicated in 80% of the world's health problems. An estimated 40,000 people around the world each day die of diseases directly caused by contaminated water. That is more than 14 million per year.

** One-third of the population of Africa and most of the major cities in the developing world will face water shortages, according to the United Nations.

** The northern half of China, home to perhaps half a billion people, already is short of water. The water table under Beijing has fallen nearly 200 feet since 1965.

** Australia faces some of the most severe water shortages in the developed world. After a long drought, the Murray-Darling river system, which supplies water for 40% of the country's crops and 80% of its irrigation, no longer carries enough water to reach the sea without constant dredging. Salinity levels in the Murray are rising so quickly that the water is expected to be undrinkable in 20 years.

** Water usage is causing other problems as well. For example, irrigation water evaporates, leaving minerals in the soil. By 2020, 30% of the world's arable land will be salty; by 2050, 50%. Salinization already is cutting crop yields in India, Pakistan, Egypt, Mexico, Australia, and parts of the United States.

** Pollution further reduces the supply of safe drinking water. In India, an estimated 300 million people lack access to safe drinking water, due to widespread pollution of rivers and groundwater.

** Water quality is a growing problem even in the developed lands. In the United States, cities such as Atlanta, where the delivery system is a century old and poorly maintained, suffer frequent water-main breaks, which suck dirt, debris, bacteria, and pollutants into the water supply.

** Many climatologists believe that global warming will make drought in the United States much more frequent--even the norm--west of the Mississippi River.

Implications: Such problems as periodic famine and desertification can be expected to grow more frequent and severe in coming decades.

Climate change is expected to reduce the flow of Australia's parched Murray River by a further 15% in 50 years.

Water wars, predicted for more than a decade, are a threat in places like the Kashmir: Much of Pakistan's water comes from areas of Kashmir now controlled by India.

Other present and future water conflicts involve Turkey, Syria, and Iraq over the Tigris and Euphrates; Israel, Jordan, Syria, and Palestine over water from the Jordan River and the aquifers under the Golan Heights; India and Bangladesh, over the Ganges and Brahmaputra; China, Indochina, and Thailand, over the Mekong; Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan over the Oxus and Jaxartes rivers; and Ethiopia, Sudan, and at least six East African countries, including Egypt, which share the Nile.

Impurities in water will become an even greater problem as the population of the developed countries ages and becomes more susceptible to infectious diseases.

In the United States, repair of decayed water systems is likely to be a major priority for older cities such as New York, Boston, and Atlanta. Cost estimates for necessary replacement and repair of water mains range up to $1 trillion.

* Recycling has proved to be an effective alternative to dumping.

** Some 37% of London's municipal waste is recycled, with a target of 45% by 2020.

** Seattle, with one of the most effective recycling programs in the United States, recycles about half of its solid waste.

** As of 2005, Germany recycled 60% of its municipal solid waste, 65% of manufacturing waste, 80% of packaging, and 87% of construction waste, according to the Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety. Largely as a result, the number of landfills for domestic waste has been reduced from about 50,000 in the 1970s to just 160.

Implications: Expect a wave of new regulations, recycling, waste-to-energy projects, and waste management programs in the United States and other countries in an effort to stem the tide of trash. In the United States, it will likely begin in California, a jurisdiction often cited by policy forecasters as a bellwether of change.

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State and local governments will tighten existing regulations and raise disposal prices in Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Louisiana, and other places that accept much of the trash from major garbage producers such as New York.

Trash producers in the developed world will ship much more of their debris to repositories in developing countries. This will inspire protests in the receiving lands.

Beyond 2025 or so, the developing countries will close their repositories to foreign waste, forcing producers to develop more waste-to-energy and recycling technologies. Ultimately, it may even be necessary to exhume buried trash for recycling to make more room in closed dump sites for material that cannot be reused.

Waste-to-energy will make only a small contribution to the world's growing need for power.

* Industrial development trumps environmental concerns in many parts of the world.

** Pew's 2007 Global Attitudes Project survey found that fewer than one-fourth of respondents in any African country rated environmental problems as the world's most important threat. In Ethiopia, where desertification is at its worst and drought is a constant threat, only 7% did so.

** Beijing has made repairing the environment a national priority. Yet 70% of the energy used in China comes from coal-burning power plants, few of them equipped with pollution controls. The country intends to build more than 500 more coal-fired plants in the next 10 years. Scientists estimate that by 2025 China will emit more carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide than the United States, Japan, and Canada combined.

Implications: Broad regions of the planet will be subject to pollution, deforestation, and other environmental ills in the coming decades.

Acid rain like that afflicting the United States and Canada will appear wherever designers of new power plants and factories neglect emission controls. In India, an area the size of the United States is covered by a haze of sulfates and other chemicals associated with acid rain. Look for this problem to appear in most other industrializing countries.

Diseases related to air and water pollution will spread dramatically in the years ahead. Already, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is five times more common in China than in the United States. As citizens of the developing countries grow to expect modern health care, this will create a heavier burden on their economies.

This is just a taste of future problems, and perhaps not the most troublesome. Even the U.S. government now admits that global warming is a result of human activities that produce greenhouse gases. It now seems that China and India soon will produce even more of them than the major industrialized nations. Helping the developing lands to raise their standards of living without creating wholesale pollution will require much more aid and diplomacy than the developed world has ever been willing to give this cause.

* Though species extinction may not be as rapid as once believed, loss of biodiversity will be a growing worry for decades to come.

** By 2100, as many as half of all species could disappear.

** Some 16,118 species are now listed as threatened (7,925 animal species and 8,393 plant and lichen species), according to the 2006 Red List of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. This is an increase of nearly 2,700 in four years. The real list is likely at least twice as large, as the group has evaluated only 40,000 of the 1.5 million species on its list.

** An estimated 50,000 species disappear each year, up to 1,000 times the natural rate of extinction, according to the United Nations Environmental Program.

** Eleven percent of birds, 25% of mammals, and 20%-30% of all plants are estimated to be nearing extinction.

** Amphibian populations are in decline throughout the world, for reasons that remain poorly understood.

** Twenty-five "hot spots" vulnerable to extinctions, covering 11% of the world's surface, have lost 70% of their original vegetation. What is left in its natural state, about 2% of the planet's surface, is home to 44% of all plant species and 35% of all vertebrates other than fish. The hot spots also are home to 1.2 billion people, or one-fifth of the world's population.

** The chief cause for species loss is the destruction of natural habitats by logging, agriculture, and urbanization. Some 30 million acres of rain forest are destroyed each year. More than half the world's rain forests are already gone. At current rates, the rest could disappear in the next 40 years.

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** Coral reefs throughout the world are dying rapidly. Caribbean reefs have lost 80% of their coral cover in the past three decades. In Indonesia, home to one-eighth of the world's coral reefs, more than 70% of the reefs are dead or dying. Among the suspected culprits are overfishing, pollution, and global warming.

** Though commercial fishing is not known to have exterminated any species--largely because the last few members of a species are too costly to catch--it is turning out to be one more important cause of species depletion. Stocks of cod, tuna, swordfish, marlin, and sharks are down 90% since modern industrialized fishing began 40 years ago.

Implications: Species loss has a powerful negative impact on human well-being. Half of all drugs used in medicine are derived from natural sources, including 55 of the top 100 drugs prescribed in the United States. About 40% of all pharmaceuticals are derived from the sap of vascular plants. So far, only 2% of the 300,000 known sap-containing plants have been assayed for useful drugs.

The Indonesian economy loses an estimated $500,000 to $800,000 annually per square mile of dead or damaged reef.

Australia may lose even more as degradation of the Great Barrier Reef continues.

Diverse ecosystems absorb more carbon dioxide than those with fewer species. Loss of biodiversity thus is a potential cause of global warming.

* Continuing urbanization will aggravate most environmental and social problems.

** Forty-eight percent of the world's population currently lives in cities, according to the Population Reference Bureau's 2006 World Population Data Sheet. By 2030, that figure will grow to 60%, as some 2.1 billion people are added to the world's cities.

** More than three-fourths of the population in developed countries live in cities. In North America, urbanization is the highest, at 79%. But cities are growing fastest in the developing world.

** The big are getting bigger. In 1950, there were just eight megacities, with populations exceeding 5 million, in the world. By 2015, there will be 59 megacities, 48 of them in less-developed countries. Of these, 23 will have populations over 10 million, all but four in the developing lands.

** Natural increase now accounts for more than half of population increase in the cities; at most, little more than one-third of urban growth results from migration.

** Up to 1 billion city dwellers lack adequate shelter, clean water, toilets, or electricity. The United Nations estimates that these problems cause 10 million needless deaths annually.

** Fuels burned in cities account for 75% of global carbon emissions from human activity, according to the Worldwatch Institute.

** NASA scientists point out that urbanization also tends to put buildings and blacktop on the most fertile land, eliminating significant quantities of carbon-absorbing plants.

** Urbanization also deprives surrounding areas of water: Instead of sinking into the ground, rain is collected, piped to the city, used, treated as gray water, and then discarded into the ocean. In some regions, such as near Atlanta, water levels in local aquifers are declining rapidly because the water that once replenished them now is lost.

** The United States is the one major exception to the global urbanization trend. This automobile-reliant society built one of the best highway systems in the world and has relatively little mass transit, so more Americans live in the suburbs than in the cities.

Implications: Cities' contribution to global warming can only increase in the years ahead.

As the world's supply of potable water declines, people are concentrating in those areas where it is hardest to obtain and is used least efficiently. This trend will aggravate water problems for so long as it continues.

Many more people will die due to shortages of shelter, water, and sanitation. Epidemics will become still more common as overcrowding spreads HIV and other communicable diseases more rapidly.

Since urban growth is now due more to natural increase than to migration, programs designed to encourage rural populations to remain in the countryside may be misplaced. Education and family planning seem more likely to rein in the growth of cities.

About the Authors

Marvin J. Cetron is president of Forecasting International Ltd. in Virginia. He is also a member of the World Future Society board of directors. E-mail glomar@tili.com.

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Owen Davies is a former senior editor of Omni magazine and is a freelance writer specializing in science, technology, and the future.

This article is excerpted from their forthcoming report, "55 Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World." The second half of the report will appear in the May-June 2008 issue of THE FUTURIST.