Better Times are Ahead, but Recovery is Impeded by Soft Labor Markets: "Disturbingly" soft is...

For the third time in the last four quarters, real GDP growth in the first quarter failed to reach two percent, raising concerns the economy may be slipping back into recession. Indeed, with employment still declining, the National Bureau of Economic Research has yet to declare an end to the recession that began in March 2001. Vindicating that hesitancy, the composite index of coincident economic indicators, which is comprised of the four key measures used to define the business cycle, has remained slightly below its third quarter 2002 average for the last three quarters.