MANUEL ZELAYA TO HEAD HONDURAS AND REDEFINE HIS PARTY.

Manuel "Mel" Zelaya of the Partido Liberal (PL) is president-elect

of Honduras. His victory was suspected soon after the Nov. 27 election (see NotiCen, 2005-12-01), but the failure of the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) to produce the data led his opponent, Porfirio Lobo Sosa of the ruling Partido Nacional (PN), to refuse to concede until Dec. 5, when the data became available, abundant, and overwhelming. Even then, however, the TSE had still not published the full count or certified the results.

The reasons for the delay have still not been made public, but TSE sources have told the media that there had been tampering of some kind with the data, leading PL party president Patricia Rodas to comment, "It is becoming clear that the system's software was manipulated in such a way that precise results were impossible to obtain."

On the basis of exit polls and scrutiny by election observers, there seems little doubt that the data is representative and that the election process went off in an acceptable manner.

Campaign managers crucial

Blame and credit, respectively, have been given to the candidates' advisors, Ecuadoran Cesar Verduga for Zelaya and Mark Klugman for Lobo Sosa. Verduga achieved a reputation for his handling of the resignation (see NotiSur, 1997-05-30) of Ecuador's former President Abdala Buccaram (1996-1997). Zelaya is said to have personally hired Verduga. Verduga steered Zelaya deftly through a minefield laid by a very aggressive Klugman, a right-winger from the US, who created for Lobo the image of a punitive tough guy, a stubborn unilateralist who could respond to crime and insecurity. The strategy might have worked in the US, but Hondurans not part of the PN base were scared by it, said analysts. It was on Klugman's advice that Lobo refused to concede, further damaging his standing with the public.

Victory within the party as well

Zelaya assumed the mantle of president-elect early on, even before the concession, and has already chosen most of his Cabinet. From the look of it, commentators have taken the view that he has not only defeated the ruling party but he has beaten the conservative wing of his own party, too. Zelaya's closest allies now are cofounders with him of the Movimiento Esperanza Liberal (MEL). The MEL came together for the elections of 2000 and fared badly. Zelaya was significantly outgunned in that election by Rafael Pineda Ponce and Jaime Rosenthal of the PL. Ponce went on to lose the election to President Ricardo Maduro in a savage contest.