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ATM market update--the new millennium

By Cochran, Rosemary M
Publication: Business Communications Review
Date: Friday, September 1 2000

After a hard fight, ATM finally earned some respect. Will its status be shortlived?

Will it happen next year? Will it take a decade? Will it occur before the end of the millennium? This level of uncertainty is always applicable to the Boston Red Sox, who haven't won a World Series since 1918.

But for ATM, the widespread uncertainty today relates to how long it will survive as a core technology, and specifically, when IP will finally render ATM obsolete.

The Billion-Dollar Answer

What is certain is that ATM is anything but obsolete, at least for now. The global market for ATM services and equipment generated $5.6 billion in 1999 and will hit $13.3 billion by 2002 (Figure 1). The U.S. accounts for the majority of total market revenue, but that may change; based on current projected growth rates, by 2002, total ATM revenues outside the U.S. will reach $6.9 billion, surpassing the U.S. market's $6.4 billion.

The equipment segment includes ATM switches for carrier, Internet service provider (ISP) and private enterprise networks, plus ATM WAN access equipment and ATM LAN switches. The ATM services segment is defined as native ATM UNI (User-to-Network Interface) services. ATMbased services (e.g., LAN extension, video-ondemand, circuit emulation, etc.) and specialized carrier offerings (e.g., integrated access via ATM) are not included in these market figures.

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